Risk Analysis Of Construction Diversion And Multi-objective Decision For Construction Diversion Scheme On A Key Water-control Project Of Xinjiang

Construction diversion engineering plays a very important role in a hydraulic engineering, and is alsowith risk. Therefore, the construction diversion risk analysis is necessary while a hydraulic engineering isplanned and designed, the construction diversion schemes optimization is also based on the result of riskanalysis for both economic benefit and safe.The uncertain factors which affect construction diversion risk are analyzed and discussed. Then areview of previous works on the diversion risk analysis and evaluation on risk calculating methods aregiven. By using Monte-Carlo method with MATLAB software, the diversion risk is calculated forengineering. It is proved that the calculation is correct and effective.In fact, the construction diversion schemes optimization is a multi-objective decision process. In thepaper, the evaluation index system for construction diversion schemes is developed and some methods usedfor multi-objective decision are introduced and evaluated. An improved analytic hierarchy process(improved AHP) is used for the construction diversion schemes optimization for a pivotal project. It isproved that using improved AHP is more reasonable in determination of objective weight whenconstruction diversion schemes optimization and less calculation workload. Therefore，the improved AHPis applied to multi-objective decision for construction diversion schemes.As an example, construction diversion risk is analyzed and calculated for a hydraulic pivotal project inXinjiang. The results prove that the risks of all the diversion schemes are less than standard of design flood.By using improved AHP with the goal of both construction costs and risks, the multi-objective decision forconstruction diversion schemes optimization is conducted and an optimum scheme is selected. Comparedwith original design scheme, selected scheme is more economical.