Multi-objective Risk Model Of Optimal Construction Diversion Standards Based On Entropy Weight

The optimal selection of construction diversion standard exists in the whole progress of hydroelectric power engineering, and it is the main factor of planning general construction progress. The optimal selection influences the project cost, the construction safety and period.There are lot of uncertain factors that affect construction diversion risk, including hydrologic factor, hydraulic factor and others. This paper analyzes hydrologic uncertainties such as peak-flow, flood-volumes, flood-duration and simulates construction flood by Monte-Carlo method. Analyzing uncertainties of hydraulic parameters of discharge construction, we test the probability distribution of discharge capability by means of the statistical analysis model. This paper also presents a model of diversion risk and puts forward a computing method after considering the factors above on.Decision making needs weights which describe the relative importance of different decision indexes. The evaluation degree of a decision index in objective information is represented by an entropy weight through applying the entropy weight theory. It acts as a comprehensive weight of a decision index to combine an impersonal entropy weight with a subjective weight. The author analyses and confirms the main objects of optimizing standard of construction diversion based on quantitativing construction diversion risk. Then this paper puts forward an effective maths model and computing method of optimizing diversion standard.It shows that the risk analysis method considered multi-factor and the decision model are effective through a case study of Jinping first stage hydropower station.