Study On Decision Making Of Construction Diversion Scheme

Construction diversion system is an important system in water resources and hydraulic engineering. The decision making of Construction diversion is a key problem concerned with the cost, period, safety and convenience of construction. Around the main subject, the thesis studies the risk calculation of diversion and the decision making of diversion scheme. Then, a mathematical model for risk calculation of diversion considering of the uncertainty of hydrology and hydraulics is defined and a scheme selection optimization model of diversion based on fuzzy multi-attribute decision-making is established.By analyzing risk sources and those uncertain factors affecting the risk, the diversion risk is defined as the probability of the maximum discharge after being adjusted and held higher than the maximum design flood. In this model, the peak of flood, flood total outflow and flood process are to be considered. A calculation program with Monte-Carlo method and a simplified method for calculating diversion risk are suggested.In consideration of the actual situation in decision making of construction diversion, the fuzzy that exists in the four attribute indexes and decision-making process should be attached importance to. This paper applies the fuzzy theory and the newest decision-making theory to the process of diversion scheme selection optimization and triangular fuzzy number is used to express the values of those attribute indexes and their weights, together with the triangular fuzzy number bipolar scaling method which quantifies the qualitative factors and the method which determine the weights of these factors. The information included in the model is much more than that in the classical decision-making model, so the process of decision-making model is more suitable to the fact. Finally, an example is given to show concretely the decision-making process.