Research On Power Cut Risk Of Distribution Network

The fault of power distribution network is very important facts influencing quality and reliability of electric energy. Identifying risk factors of power distribution network and assessing the breakdown risk can avoid operation risk of power network.Based on the risk evaluation theory, this paper analysis the risk source, key risk source, risk event and probability distribution; build risk evaluation system of power network, including reliability index, customer breakdown lose index and power company breakdown lose index. Then, cloud model based risk index system evaluation method is given to calculate the risk ponderance, build the risk matrix.Using the research results above, this paper evaluate2011breakdown events in a coastal City. The result shows that fault breakdown risk facts in this system reflect fault cause of power network totally, and the feasibility of cloud model using in risk evaluation. Methods in this paper give a good tool in power network risk evaluation.