Predictive Analysis Resources-dependent Cities Landscape Pattern Dynamics

Land is the most important development of human society. But people to meet their own survival and development needs of land development and utilization activities and the resulting land-use change is one of the important causes of global environmental change. How to use the land has become a hot topic of recent research home and abroad. The county of Baoqing as a large typical of resource, agriculture and ecological. With the growing population and rapid economic development, The process of urbanization is going fast. Between the influence of natural factors and human drivers, the land use of Baoqing change dramatically. Analysis of Baoqing County land use change, and to provide a scientific basis for future regional economic and ecological construction.This study was based on the data of three Landsat TM remote sensing images of Baoqing in1989,1999and2010. Dynamic changes of the land use and landscape pattern of Baoqing since1989was analyzed systematically, with the applications of RS, GIS and landscape ecology. The results show that:Dominant landscapes in the past20years are arable land, forest and grassland and wetlands, that is, more than95%of the study area; While other types were patch-like distribution in the study area. The changes of all those land use types have experienced a process from rapid to slow. A large number of forest and grassland, wetland and unused land conversed to arable landscape. Forest, meadows, wetlands and unused land area are experiencing substantial reduction, however increasing in the number of patches. That is to say, the landscape fragmentation aggravated, the diversity and heterogeneity reduced. As a result, ecological benefits of land like conserving water and keeping the soil were weakened. In order to prevent further deterioration of the contradictions between people and land, it is highly recommended that the relevant government departments pay more attention to the ecological benefits from different landscapes to assure and achieve the sustainable use of land resources, while promoting economic development. Driving factor analysis shows that terrain, traffic and distance have an important impact on the distribution of land use types of the study area. More than84%of arable land, wetlands, construction land and waters in0-2°has an absolute advantage in the area of more than2°, of forest and grassland distribution. Attract showed significant road construction land, away from the road the closer, more distributed. Cellular automaton has a strong ability to simulate the space complex systems change.Markov model has good advantages in terms of number of projections. CA-Markov model combining cellular automata and Markov model, integrated space and the number of the advantages of both simulation and prediction of land use change. In this study, With the IDRISI software support, the choice of1989and1999, the two images as a basis to generate the area transition matrix to generate maps of various landscape types, the1999land-use type photo-based, based on Baoqing County land use factors, including terrain, traffic factors and the relationship between the distance from the town center generated land use suitability image sets to predict Baoqing County2009land Use and Landscape distribution. After use the reality land use of2010and accuracy verification, Proven Kappa index is0.82, the accuracy of the model is good, and ultimately predict the change of landscape pattern in2020. Figure Baoqing2020simulation and prediction of landscape types, compared with the actual land use in2010, cultivated land, forest and grassland and unused land changes to a lesser extent, a significant increase in the construction area, wetlands reduce violent advantage Landscape role of arable land in the study area is becoming increasingly obvious. The degree of influence of human activities on the landscape pattern is deepening, the increase in the degree of fragmentation, ecological and environmental problems become increasingly serious. To prevent the further deterioration of the contradiction between people, it is recommended that the relevant departments in the promotion of economic development at the same time, taking into account the ecological benefits of wetlands, forest grass landscape types, to achieve the sustainable use of land resources and sustainable development.