The Passenger Flow Analysis And Forecasting Of Urban Rail Transit Station

As China’s social and economic development, urban transport demand and vehiclepopulation increased, the large cities are facing the problem of traffic congestion,environmental pollution and traffic safety. In order to meet the needs of China’s rapideconomic development and sustainable development, many big cities have chosen the urbanrail transit to solve the urban traffic problem. The cost of urban rail transit construction isenormous, and station construction costs accounts for a sizeable proportion of the entire railtransit construction costs. Accurately and reasonably forecasting station passenger flow needsand grasping the scale of the station building, is an effective way to reduce the cost of railtransit construction under the premise of meeting the passenger ridership demand in thefuture.The paper introduces the function and facilities of the station, lists the use of stationpassenger flow in the design of the size of the station facilities according to the Metro Designand describes transfer mode and features of the station passenger flow. The paper alsoanalyzes the space-time distribution characteristics and behavioral features of the stationpassenger flow on the basis of the domestic station passenger survey. This paper analyzes theinfluencing factors of the station passenger flow and calculates the station attract passengerrange. The paper introduces the traditional station passenger flow forecast method. The modelof probability of chain travel mode choice is established, based on delineating the station andcalculating the generalized travel costs. Then, the paper calculates the station passenger flowsusing this model. The central square station, an urban rail transit station in Xining City, isselected as an example to analysis.