The Amount Forecast Of The Daily Arrived Coal In Provincial Network And The Simulation Of High-voltage Power Grid System

The provincial power system fuel supply has very important relationship with theprovince’s economic and livelihood: If the amount of daily arrived coal is too less, it willenable the power plant cannot generate electricity as schedule. Thus the normal operationof social production, management and life will also be affected; If the daily amount of coalsupply is too much, it will increase the coal storage costs or waste of electricity resources.To improve prediction of the amount of daily coal supply will be useful for electricityproduction scheduling. It is a way to avoid the above problems.Power system interconnection improved the running economy and operationalreliability of the power generation and transmission. But the grid interconnection may leadto the production of low-frequency oscillation of provincial power grid or regional grid.Low frequency oscillation may result in a large area blackout.Thus people’s lives and theeconomy of the country will have catastrophic losses. So the research of the power systemsimulation, the generation mechanism of low-frequency oscillation and suppressionmeasures is very important. The grid simulation systems are complex and expensive thatestablished by State Grid corporation. The current power system simulation based onSIMULINK established primarily for the single machine infinite bus system, or simplepower structure of the power grid model.This paper provides two kinds of short-term forecasting molds. They are differentialautoregressive of order prediction and differential autoregressive of cycle prediction. Theyare used to predict the next ten days of the daily arrived amount of coal. We get highprediction accuracy in the end.The work of this paper is to utilize the SIMULINK platform to simulate actual grid.It use Yudong area110kV and above power grid geographical wiring diagram, to build amulti-machine complex power system model. Waveform diagram of the simulation grid, and the typical power parameters is close with the actual system. Based on Yudong gridmodel,, by setting a three-phase short-circuit fault, the reproduction of low-frequencyoscillations, compare the power system stabilizer (PSS) and linear optimal excitationcontrol strategy (LOEC), in the event of a super-low-frequency oscillation or times whenlow-frequency oscillation, LOEC than PSS better inhibition. Analysis of these results onthe large grid low-frequency oscillation and disincentives research has important referencevalue.