| Coal is China's most important energy source,and long-term and large-scale consumption has caused serious air pollution.While Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is experiencing rapid economic growth,it is also facing the predicament of frequent haze-locked cities and deteriorating air pollution,which is closely related to the large-scale coal consumption in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.Electricity and natural gas are clean energy sources,and the replacement of coal can effectively reduce air pollutant emissions.For this reason,General Secretary Xi Jinping at the 14th meeting of the Central Finance and Economics Leading Group emphasized that in accordance with the principle of enterprise-oriented,government-driven,and affordable for residents,gas suitable for transformation is transformed into gas,and electricity suitable for transformation is transformed into electricity.The prelude to‘coal to electricity' and‘coal to gas' kicked off.The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,as a relatively polluted area,has become a leading force for "coal to electricity" and'coal to gas'.This article analyzes the energy consumption in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,and then uses the combined forecast method to forecast the energy demand in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2018 to 2025 under the current 'conversion of coal consumption to electricity or natural gas consumption' policy.At the same time,this article analyzes the electricity and natural gas supply of 'coal to electricity' and'coal to gas' in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,and attempts to answer the question of the source of electricity and natural gas,and discusses the relevant factors affecting the price of electricity and natural gas.Finally,based on a computable general equilibrium model,the effects of different 'coal to electricity' and 'coal to gas' efforts on the economic,social and environment have been simulated,determined the scope of 'coal to electricity' and 'coal to gas' that the economic,employment and environment can withstand,and compared with the results of the energy forecast,proposed adjustment proposals for the current 'coal to electricity'and 'coal to gas' projects.The main structure and content of this article are as follows:Chapter 1 is the introduction,which mainly introduces the research background,research purpose and research significance of this article,sorts out related research at home and abroad,and explains some attempts and deficiencies of this article.Chapter 2 first reviews the existing‘coal-to-electricity' and 'coal to gas' policies,then analyzes the energy consumption situation in the Beijing-Tianj in-Hebei region,furthermore,the Shapley Value method was used to combine the gray forecast GM(1,1)method and the quadratic exponential smoothing method to predict the total energy consumption,coal,electricity and natural gas demand in the Beijing-Tianj in-Hebei region from 2018 to 2025.The results show that the total energy consumption,Electricity consumption and natural gas consumption of the Beijing-Tianj in-Hebei region are on the rise,reaching approximately 47.636 million tons of standard coal,708.7 billion kilowatt-hours,and 104.345 billion cubic meters in 2025,respectively;while the demand for coal will continue to decline,approximately 24.139 million tons by 2025.Chapter 3 analyzes the supply and price of electricity and natural gas in the Beijing-Tianj in-Hebei region.It was found that the production capacity of electricity and natural gas in the Beijing-Tianj in-Hebei region cannot meet its own needs.In terms of power demand,the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region must rely on other regions in the country,such as Shanxi,Shaanxi,and Mengxi,to provide supplies.Natural gas must rely on increased imports to make up for the shortfall.In terms of price,electricity prices in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region may rise moderately,and gas prices may show a rising trend of fluctuations.Chapter 4 introduces the construction of the CGE model,including the introduction of CGE theory,division of departments,description of the equation system,data sources,and adjustment of parameters.Chapter 5 first explains the simulation paths of 'coal to power' and 'coal to gas',and then,based on the constructed CGE model,the effects of different 'coal to electricity' and 'coal to gas conversions on the economic,social,and environmental impact of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region were simulated,the results show that'coal to electricity' and 'coal to gas' can improve the environment to a certain extent,but the environmental effect of 'coal to electricity' is better;if the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has sufficient natural gas supply capacity,'coal to gas'has better economic and social effects than 'coal to electricity';When considering the cross-region PM2.5 cross-transmission,the minimum required range for'conversion of coal consumption to electricity or natural gas consumption' is 19%-22%.After comprehensively considering the effects of the economic,social and environment,it is believed that intensity of 'conversion of coal consumption to electricity or natural gas consumption' should be controlled between 24%-30%,and the ratio of 'coal to gas' and 'coal to electricity' should be controlled between 1:9-4:6.Specifically,when the 'conversion of coal consumption to electricity or natural gas consumption' intensity is 24%-25%,the ratio of‘coal to gas'and‘coal to electricity'should be 1:9;when the 'conversion of coal consumption to electricity or natural gas consumption' intensity is 25%-27%,The ratio of 'coal to gas' and 'coal to electricity'should be controlled between 1:9 and 3:7;when the intensity of 'conversion of coal consumption to electricity or natural gas consumption' is 27%-30%,The ratio should be controlled between 1:9 and 4:6.According to the comparison of the energy consumption situation of the simulation results with the previous energy demand forecast results,it was found that the ratio of‘coal to electricity' and‘coal to gas'should be increased moderately.And based on the analysis of existing power and natural gas supply capacity.it was found that sufficient power and natural gas supply to the Beijing-Tianj in-Hebei region can be guaranteed.Chapter 6 puts forward policy suggestions for rationally controlling the'conversion of coal consumption to electricity or natural gas consumption'efforts,simultaneous 'coal to electricity' and‘coal to gas',improving the supply guarantee capacity of 'electricity' and 'gas' in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,and ensuring stable and acceptable prices of electricity and natural gas,different ratios of 'coal to electricity' and 'coal to gas' in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei. |
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