Study On Evaluation Method Of Urban Rail Stations Operational Risk Based On Improved Extension And Matter-Element Method

ABSTRACT:Recently with the continuous acceleration of urbanization, urban mass transit construction is developing as a golden period, more and more cities start to build the subway, when a large number of stations are in operating, it becomes so hard to manage the stations’risks, so we need to have a clear understanding and recognition of the risks that exist in the stations operating, and strengthen the study of the risks assessment of urban mass transit stations, then provide helps for policy-makers to plan、 control and manage the risks betterly.Based on the above background, this paper relys on the "12th Five-Year" National Science and Technology Support Project 《Key technologies and systematic development of urban rail transit network operations security》(2011BAG01B02). Based on the deep research and analysis of urban rail transit operation status,combines the characteristics of urban rail transit operation and management, by analyzing the risk factors that exist in urban rail transit stations, builds the risk evaluation index system and evaluation model of urban rail transit stations, and uses extension set theory and matter-element theory to give the evaluation method of urban rail stations operational risk based on improved extension and matter-element method. The main contents are as follows:(1) Make in-depth researches on the relevant departments of the typical large urban rail transit, then analyze the risk elements which impact the urban rail transit operation.(2) Make in-depth analysis based on the research result, build the risk evaluation index system of urban rail transit stations and provide the method of weight making.(3) Base on the index system features, combine with the actual operational situation, on the basis of existing studies give the risk evaluation method of urban rail transit stations and found the risk evaluation model of urban rail transit stations.(4) Base on the above findings, using MATLAB as a tool, as the example of Beijing subway, make the realization of the risk assessment model simulation of urban rail transit station.