Study On EPC Contractor Cost Claim Risk Of Petrochemical Project In Construction Phase

Cost claim risk management is an important component of construction project risk management, which has a direct impact on project investment. In terms of EPC contractor, cost claim occurrences can affect project cost and profits. Prior to the implementation of the project, accurate forecast for project cost claim risk plays an important role in project risk management.This thesis, from the perspective of EPC contractor, is combined with petrochemical project characteristics, employing the theory of risk management to make a research on Daqing Petrochemical Company600Kta Ethylene Project cost claim risk in construction phase. Research processes and conclusions are as follows:(1) Based on the analysis of cost claim constitution and transmission property, put forward cost claim risk scheme forecast and establish cost claim risk forecast process of petrochemical project, and introduce the methods and tools of the research uses.(2) According to petrochemical project function zoning, from the perspective of EPC contractor, establish a cost claim WBS-RBS matrix in construction phase, and conduct the relevant judgment. Thereby the thesis adapts the expert judgment method to judge the project claim risk occurrences probability, then calculate and determine zone cost claim risk probability based on partition weight. Depending on five petrochemical projects data investigation, analyzing and calculating, the minimum, average and maximum value of project cost claim risk are obtained respectively. By assuming cost claim amounts and occurrences probability distribution and using Monte Carlo method for sampling, simulation, the expected value and standard deviation of cost claim risk are obtained from EPC contractor to owner and subcontractor to EPC contractor, the difference of cost claim amounts is calculated accordingly.(3) Based on the analysis of the above results, cost claim which can be transmitted is an opportunity for EPC contractor. The claim, brought by project change---an increase in the workload, is the largest share in cost claim constitution. The quality problems of supplies which provided by owner or EPC contractor and other problems are losses to EPC contractor. To analyze the causes of five main cost claim risk events and zone cost claim risk occurrence probabilities based on partition weight. In accordance with the transmissibility of cost claim to confirm the risk response, cost claim risks which can’t be transmitted should be circumvented. Otherwise, ought to strengthen management and monitor cost and boost profits.This thesis, based on history real projects, a cost claim risk research forecast is made on EPC contractor of petrochemical project in construction phase, determines the main events of cost claim risk, the expected value and standard deviation of claim amount are calculated, formulates risk response principle, and provides basis and guidance for the implementation of the project.