The Research For Supervision And Management Of The Risk Of The Process Of Long Distance Water Diversion

With the population growth and economy development, the imbalance betweenwater supply and demand has become one importment element, which affects the survival andsustainable development of human beings in21stcentury. Long distance water division hasbecome a significant tool to adjust the uneven space-time distribution of water resources, andto realize the rational allocation of water resources. It has draw attention from the world.Currently, intelligent aided decision technology system, such as engineering theory, decisionsupport systems, and neural network have made a big development. How to use these kind ofmulti-objective and high-dimensional system to undertake the long distance water diversion,such as modern water conservancy planning, decision’s theory and method, and computertechnology. It is one of the frontier subjects at home and abroad.The main contents of the research are as follows:（1） Based on the fact that the project takes different role in the process of longdistance water diversion, it can be divided into three subsystems water lift, water delivery andwater storage. In view of risk analysis of the water conservancy project system’s features andthe project properties, we can identify the risk factors from each links like project structure,operation and management. According to the comprehensive objective knowledge andsubjective judgment, the structure of whole system’s risk factor has been built. Moreover, inaccordance with the project risk evaluation conclusion and project operation status, we usecountermeasures and method like, engineering measures and non-engineering measures toreduce risk.（2） Risk monitoring system using comprehensive monitoring and keymonitoring these technical means, which complement each other and move in circle, canupdate basic data and conclusion at any time. It shows the concept of monitoring the process.In correspond, we establish comprehensive as well as key risk early warning and managementthese two kinds of management methods.（3） Based on the monitoring index system of the long-distance water diversionoperation’s risk, we combine the fuzzy mathematics theory and artificial neural network to establish risk’s comprehensive evaluation model of the network. First, we apply model whichcombines the method of analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Then,we verified the effectiveness and applicability of the risk’s comprehensive evaluation modelof the network through project examples.（4） Design and develop the information system of risk management. Usingobject-oriented programming method, it realizes the establishment of the database of risk’smanaging system and shows the functions like, management of project’s data, setting ofmonitoring standard, management of update monitoring, risk analysis, risky accidentprocessing etc. The subsystem of the risk’s process monitoring provides accurate data of thepresent situation to the risk management department of Construction Company. It can notonly let the department make accurate analysis of the risk and risk dynamic, but also to makeearlier management decisions. The subsystem can be used by Construction Company toabsorb and transform risk, according to the known risk. Meanwhile, the ConstructionCompany can monitor the risk management itself, and master the real effects of risk control.In accordance with the ineffective decision-making, we make timely adjustment to reduce therate of false dismissal and false alarm.