| Long-distance water diversion project is a major water conservancy project to solve the uneven distribution of regional water resources.At present,there are many long-distance water diversion projects all over the world,which bring great benefits to people’s life and social development in arid and water-deficient areas,and also make water diversion as the main water source in water demand areas.Once the project operation is affected and the water cannot be transferred normally,great damage will be caused.The long-distance water diversion project has a long distance,a large span and a wide range of areas,so there are many factors affecting the safe operation of the project and it is not easy to manage.In order to solve this problem,this paper conducts the following research:(1)taking long-distance water diversion project as the research object,on the basis of on-site investigation and literature collection,risk factors affecting long-distance water diversion project are preliminarily identified,causes of risk formation and consequences are analyzed,and a safety risk index system for operation of long-distance water diversion project is preliminarily constructed.(2)considering the sensitivity and independent feature information of the index,and taking it as the evidence source,the basic trust allocation function of the two feature information was fused based on d-s evidence theory,and the index optimization model was established.According to the index reliability obtained by the model,the index optimization is realized and the risk index system is established.(3)the operation safety risk evaluation model of long-distance water diversion project based on triangular fuzzy number--AHP was established,the key risks affecting the safe operation of the project were obtained by using the orthogonal test analysis method,and the corresponding prevention and control countermeasures were proposed for the key risks to provide support for the safe operation of the project. |
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