Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation On Safe Operation Of Water Diversion Project

Water diversion project is built for the increasing water requirement of industry, living and ecology, and the safe operation of it ensures the healthy development of national economy, the high-speed advance of society and the increase of people's life standard. Now the great mass of existing safety researches aim at the single key water conveyance structure, the global analysis of safety evaluation looking the water diversion project as an integral structure needs more studies. At the same time, the daily operation and management evaluation of water diversion project isn't combined with the safety operation evaluation of it, but only used for performance assessment. For resolving the above mentioned questions, on the background of water diversion project from Luanhe River to Tianjin City, the major achievements of this thesis are as follows:(1) Through analyzing the correlative theoretical knowledge and engineering practice in safety evaluation of water diversion project, its evaluation characteristics and the shaping principles of index system are obtained. In this thesis, the daily operation and management system, the automatic safety monitoring and evaluation systems, and the automatic control systems are regarded as the subjects investigated, then the parameters and indexes are exacted, the index system of safety evaluation in water diversion project is rebuilt.(2) According to its characteristics of the index system of safety evaluation, the analytic hierarchy process is chosen to calculate the relative importance among each index in each layer, the discriminant matrix of evaluation indexes in each layer is learnt based on the expert knowledge and operational experience of many years, finally the weight value of each index are acquired.(3) All the possible operation methods in water diversion project are discussed against water diversion project from Luanhe River to Tianjin City, making use of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to conform the operation and management system with the automatic monitoring systems, the combination of qualitative estimation and quantitative calculation is realized to evaluate the security of each operation method. The processing programs are brought forward in response to the evaluation result, and the emergency response mechanism is built to consummate the safety control of water diversion project.