Research On The Investment Risk Allocation Model And Rate Of Return For Infrastructure In BT Mode

Since BT mode has been applied to the construction of infrastructure facilities inChina, it effectively solves the bottleneck problem of fund in infrastructuredevelopment, eases the financial burden of the government, and promotes the rapiddevelopment of infrastructure. However, in the environment of lacking legalprotection, BT mode also appeares a series of problems: Risk sharing is difficult toreach an agreement, especially can the government repurchase in accordance with thecontract has become the biggest risk factor affecting investor’s returns after thecompletion of the project; investment mechanism has not yet been established, so it isdifficult to determine a reasonable rate of return. In view of the problems, the methodof summarization, theoretical analysis and logical reasoning is used in this thesis, andthe main research is as follows:Firstly, based on the current situation and development trend of construction inour country, the necessity and advantage of using BT mode in the investment andfinancing of infrastructure construction is analyzed in this thesis. From the project’scapital structure, investment structure, financing structure and credit structure, aresearch on the BT project financing frame is made, and the influence factors of fourkinds of part of the financing frame is analyzed and optimized. Also, according to thedifferent BT project construction investment relationship, a classification of its modeof operation is made in the thesis, and the standard operation process of BT mode isestablished.Secondly, based on the risk identification and risk assessment process, thedifferent risk factors of BT project is analyzed, the BT project risk factor set isestablished and the overall risk evaluation model is constructed from projectrepurchase rating, security way, land policy, engineering conditions by using themethod of subjective scoring in the thesis. On this basis, a risk allocationmathematical model of BT projects is established, and risk allocation principles isobtained from the model: the one should bear the risk who has the largest preferencecoefficien to corresponding risk in BT project construction. Under the guidance of theprinciples, most of the risk in BT mode can be reasonably distributed, and in view ofpart risk which the boundary is not clear, the ratio of risk sharing between the projectinitiator and sponsor is gotten by using game theory model in the thesis. Finally, the investment return rate of BT mode is studied in the thesis. The mainfactors and determining principles that affect the rate of return of BT project isanalyzed, the application of CAPM model in the mercantile rate of return isintroduced, and the lack of the application of CAPM model for infrastructure in BTmode is indicated. Then, the single factor arbitrage model to determing the rate ofreturn on investment in BT projects is established in the thesis. The model selectes thebenchmark bank loans rate as the common factors, and take into account the factors ofinflation and irresistible force. In the end, a simple example is used in the thesie todemonstrate the application of the model, and through the example show that it cannot only estimate the rate of return on investment, but also can adjust the rate ofreturn when benchmark bank loans rate changes, avoiding the second round ofnegotiation between project initiator and sponsor.