Urban Commuters’ Valuation Of Travel Time Reliability Based On Stated Preference Survey

Urban transportation demand continues to increase with the rapid development of economy in China. Traffic congestion becomes serious in peak hour and travel time reliability is low. Urban traffic management departments are seeking for all kinds of measures to improve the traffic. It is necessary to conduct a reasonable analysis of urban trip cost in order to assess the effect of traffic management scheme and traffic infrastructure scientifically. However, traditional studies on the value of travel time studies cannot explain urban trip cost fully. In this context, a quantitative study on commuters’value of travel time reliability for different traffic modes and schemes is needed. This thesis has conducted a research on commuters’value of travel time reliability for the public transportation mode and car mode based on SP (stated preference) survey.Firstly, literatures on the value of travel time reliability were reviewed. Commuter travel characteristics was analyzed and urban commuters were determined as the research object. Then, influencing factors of the value of travel time reliability were analyzed. After that, the basic model to study urban commuters’value of travel time reliability was chosen.Secondly, this thesis determined the attribute level of traveler, travel constraints, and travel features. Then, uniform design method is used to design the SP survey questionnaires. The data was converted and checked after getting the origin commuters travel data by survey.Thirdly, two new variables’influence on travel utility was analyzed which are "travelers’income level" and "time constraints for travelers". The value of travel time reliability model was improved and tested with SP survey data. The optimal models for public transport mode and car mode were determined.Finally, the improved model was used for public transport mode and car mode, and the value of travel time reliability was calculated. In the thesis, the value results were compared and analyzed from the perspective of the category of value, numerical value, income level, time constraints, and traffic mode.