Research On Risk Assessment And Management Of Railway Construction Projects

As an important part of infrastructure construction, railway construction project is characterized by its big scale, long-term construction, high technique standard and great investment, which make it inevitably affected by all kinds of unpredictable risk factors during its construction, providing it with greater risk than general construction project. Therefore, risk management is becoming more and more important for railway construction project.Based on domestic and foreign experiences of risk management, this thesis describes the basic theory of risk management, application of risk assessment on railway construction project is also discussed. The main works are as following.1. The definition of risk management on railway construction project is presented in this thesis, and a basic process of risk management is also introduced, in this process, risk management is divided into six phases, i.e. risk plan, risk identification, risk estimation, risk evaluation, risk control and risk monitor. A dynamic system is set up with those six components, which interact with each other, and form a repeated and cycle course.2. This thesis comes up with a risk assessment methodology for railway construction project. At the beginning of this method, the fuzzy reasoning approach is applied to calculate risk score of each independent hazardous event based on its occurrence frequency and consequence severity. Then a fuzzy analytical hierarchy process technique is applied to determine the relative importance of each hazardous event, so that the risk assessment can be progressed from hazardous event level to the subprime risk level and finally to primary risk level. At last, this article takes length ratio and cost of railway engineering as measurement index to calculate the weight factor of each primary risk, with which to complete the comprehensive assessment of railway construction projects. The result of risk assessment are represented as the risk degrees and the defined risk categories of risk levels with a belief of percentage.3. Aiming at the large scale of railway construction project, a specialized and staged management mode is proposed. In this thesis, management techniques are presented in view of the main major railway construction project involved.