Research On Methods And Model Of Sensitivity Analysis In Formal Safety Assessment

In2002, IMO promulgated the Guidelines for Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) for Use In The IMO Rule-Making Process, according to which the member states of IMO and related international organizations have made plenty of evaluations and reported to IMO. Basing on these reports, IMO summarized the deficiencies of the Guidelines and promulgated Revised Guidelines in2012. Sensitivity analysis was required to evaluating some progress of the FSA. However, there is no comprehensive sensitivity analysis model and method in the IMO’s existing reports. Therefore, it is necessary to study on the model and method of the FSA.This paper summarizes the current situation of FSA sensitivity analysis, and researches the FSA sensitivity in the process of expert evaluation from expert weight sensitivity analysis and expert scoring sensitivity. It covers the following issues:Firstly, procedures of sensitivity analysis required in the2012guidelines are introduced, and the developments and application of the sensitivity analysis in both FSA reports and other industries are summarized. Then the deficiencies of the existing sensitivity analysis method in the FSA are pointed out by comparing.Secondly, two kinds of sensitivity models which are used to solve the expert weights in the expert evaluation of the FSA are provided—sensitivity analysis based marginal weight as well as sensitivity analysis based preference method.Thirdly, using the theory of center distance put forward a kind of sensitivity analysis model for expert scoring.Fourthly, an expert scoring sensitivity model is created. After that, validity of the expert weight models and expert scoring model are verified by expert judgment data in FSA references. It’s concluded that expert weight models and expert scoring model are suitable for FSA expert judgment sensitivity analysis.To sum up, this paper verifies the two expert weight sensitivity analysis models on one hand, and establishes a calculation method regarding the expert scoring sensitivity and verifies it by samples on the other hand. Therefore, this paper is of practical significance on the sensitivity of expert evaluation in the FSA evaluation.