The Research On The Method Of Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) On Ship

The safety of ship transportation is the focus to which people pay attention all the time. After the concept of Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) on ship was raised by United Kingdom in 1993, as a strategy, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) decided to introduce and apply the FSA into the maritime field, which can gradually make it widely used in making safe regulations, in the ship transportation safety and in the ship design. The introduction of FSA into the maritime field is a challenge to the traditional viewpoint and method. In order to help people know it, IMO published "Interim Guidelines for the Application of Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) to the IMO Rule-Making Process" in 1997 and then published the formal "Guidelines for Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) for Use in the IMO Rule-Making Process" in 2002.Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) is a structured and systematic methodology, aimed at enhancing maritime safety, including protection of life, health, the marine environment and property, by using risk and cost/benefit assessments. Its application includes two important aspects, one is the foundation of marine accident database and the other is the selection of the method about Formal Safety Assessment. The way of FSA has the direct influence on the assessment results. In wiew of it, the selection and application about FSA method is the aim of this paper.The paper makes some researches in the following aspects:1. Acquaint the status and difficult problems about FSA by inquiring the known research.2. Based on the present methods, fully knowing about the research methods at relevant field, starting with analytical method, put forward the ensemble theory framework of FSA, emphasize on the analysis of the technological process for hazard identification and risk assessment.3. There are a number of uncertainties in FSA. This paper analyses the source of the uncertainties, then demarcates the uncertainties into two kinds to research, adopts probabilistic influence diagram and evidence theory to settlerespectively.4. Analyse a couple of principal uncertainties in FSA, including the risk criterion in ALARP theorem and how to make use of expert judgments and Human Reliability.5. Introduce the decision tree method to settle Human Reliability Analysis, and illustrate its application to FSA by a given example.6. Introduce probabilistic influence diagram into FSA to settle the quantitative risk analysis in FSA; Analyse how to apply probabilistic influence diagram to solve some problems during FSA, put forward a workable utility algorithm, and compare probabilistic influence diagram with the current common method in FSA.7. Apply evidence theory in FSA to settle how to evaluate the safety of the system being short of history dates. By combining evidence theory with the traditional multiple attributes decision making (MADM) method, resolve multiple attributes decision with uncertainties including qualitative attributes and quantitative attributes and an example is given to illustrate it.