Analysis Of The Effect Of Meteorological Conditions On The Flowering And Fruit Growth Of Korla Fragrant Pear

Fragrant pear is originating in Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture andAksu in Xinjiang, and is also an ancient local varieties.Korla city has advantageousnatural conditions for growing fragrant pear, which is the main provenance offragrant pear, fragrant pear production has become a local pillar industries.This study choose Korla city as study area and select the specialized gardenspot-Sha Yidong garden spot to build orchard microclimate observation station andcarry out the growth of fragrant pear. Analyzing the effect of the meteorologicalfactors on flowering and fruit growth of fragrant pear, established the predictionmodel of beginning date of flowering period and the length of flowering, and theregression model of fruit growth. Based on the investigated data of gale andmeteorological data, analyze the main factors affecting damage degree of gale. Themain results were as follows:1. Based on the data of Korla fragrant pear phenology and the meteorologicaldata from1980to2012, analyzing the relationship between Korla fragrant pearflowering period and climatic factors. The results showed that the beginning date ofKorla pear flowering period advanced earlier in last33years, and the length offlowering tends to prolong. There was significant negative relationship betweenbeginning date of Korla pear flowering and early temperature, accumulatedtemperature of≥5℃and≥10℃. Grey Relational Analysis showed that the sunshinehours of flowering period has the highest comprehensive correlation degree,theaverage relative humidity in the second place,so we can infer that the mainmeteorological factors affecting flowering length is sunshine hours and relativehumidity.Prediction model for the beginning date of fragrant pear flowering andflowering length was established by using stepwise regression. With this model, testpredictions in history and in the year2010,2011and2012were good. This resultcould provide a reference to predict the beginning date of Korla pear floweringperiod and flowering length.In addition,the prediction model of flowering length wasestablished based on the gray system theory,this model also can provide a referenceto predict the length of flowering.2. Based on the measured data of fruit growth and meteorological data ofmicroclimate observation, we can find the regularity of fruit growth. The transverseand longitudinal diameter were mainly growing in mid-May to mid-July, and the fresh and dry weight is mainly growing in mid-July to late August. Grey RelationalAnalysis showed that the60cm average ground temperature and10cm averageground temperature are the main meteorological factors affecting the diametergrowth of fragrant pear; the60cm average ground temperature and20cm averageground temperature are the main meteorological factors affecting the longitudinalgrowth of fragrant pear; the60cm average ground temperature and40cm averageground temperature are the main meteorological factors affecting the fresh weightgrowth of fragrant pear; the60cm average ground temperature and relative humidityare the main meteorological factors affecting the dry weight growth of fragrant pearThrough analysis the relationship between fruit growth and development days andmeteorological factors, established the growth model of fragrant pear. We canprovide theoretical guidance for the scientific management of fruit growth.3. Through analysis the gale days meteorological data during the major growingseason of fragrant pear, the gale days showed a decreasing trend, but the interannualvariation is also big. There is still a possibility of gale disaster. Based on the data ofgale disaster, determine the hazard index of gale disaster preliminarily.