Research And Application On Risk Assessment Method For Chinese Bee Sacbrood Disease

The Sacbrood disease is the dominant factor of Chinese bee population decrease, thelack of effective early warning method, currently only after the onset of drug control,resulting in bee yield and quality decline. Risk assessment is an effective way to identifythe potential risks of an event, so the research of risk assessment methods for Chinese beeSacbrood, can provide the basis for forecasting disease outbreaks, thereby reducing the riskof bee industry.According to the traditional risk factor theory, and the climate have absolute effect onvirus infections and the evaluation process of uncertainty, this paper presents thequantitative evaluation method based on climate similarity and semi-quantitativeevaluation method based on cloud model, develop bee pest monitoring and risk assessmentsystem, focused on solving the two key problems of the industrial area adaptabilityproblem and prevalence assessment issue.The main contents of the thesis are as follows:1. Construction of Chinese bee Sacbrood evaluation index system, including theevaluation index set and weight set. Through expert group online survey, obtain acomprehensive set of key indicators and meteorological index set with particularity, usingAHP weighting principle, the formation of the weighting factor set.2. Research on the quantitative assessment of climatic similarity method. Accordingto the meteorological data resources for the county of National Weather Service, removeoutliers by t-test method, using Euclidean distance method to calculate the climaticsimilarity between22counties and Guangzhou Station (outbreak higher intensity),estimated the suitable degree of disease in these counties.3. Research on the semi-quantitative assessment method based on cloud model. Useof cloud model represents the expert subjective judgment scales and fuzzy membershipfunction, which is the full expression of natural language fuzziness and randomness, andfurther improved AHP and fuzzy evaluation method, finally achieve a comprehensiveevaluation of group decision-making expert cloud, through analysis of cloud trend,determine the extent of disease threats.4. Developed the bee pest monitoring and risk assessment system. Based on the.NETFramework platform, we have developed a comprehensive information service system ofbee pest risk assessment. The system application and demonstration of each test station, theresult was well. At China agriculture research system’s support, the risk assessment method is appliedto the Sacbrood disease early warning, prevention and control, for reducing industrialeconomic losses, build a more scientific and objective prevention and control system, has acertain research value and practical significance.