Comparative Study On Strategies Of Households In Response To Resist Disasters

The impact of climate change on the natural environment and socio-economic activities has become increasingly evident, Into the21st century, the grasslands of Inner Mongolia has experienced natural disaster-prone for10years, consecutive years of drought, sandstorms, snowstorms and freezing disaster seriously affect the rapid and healthy development of grassland. Although the area of grassland desertification is prone to natural disasters, but the severity of these natural disasters is rare in recent decades, especially the continuous drought stacks. The production and living of pastoralists are receiving a severe impact. For example, in Sonid Right Banner, Xilin Gol League, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, since1999, consecutive8years suffered different degrees of natural disaster, especially from1999to2001for three consecutive years of the most serious disasters, drought occurred at the same time accompanied by the snow. How to decrease the loss of disaster for the herdsman is a significant challenge for the sustainable development of animal husbandry. In this paper, the herdsman’s choice of response strategies under the threat of disaster will be divided into four parts:sell part of livestock with low price, grazing own livestocks to the other pasture, leave their livestocks contracted to others by paying some compensation, and all sales. Through analyzing the changes of the herdsman’s strategic choice in the past decade, to reveal the advantages and disadvantages of various strategies, and then explains why the first strategy become the best strategy in the new period, also provide some theoretical guidance and empirical support for the herdsman to improve the ability to resist disasters.This paper includes two parts:(1) To verify whether there was a significant difference between two times strategic choices by using the chi-square test for all of the four choices of response strategies:sell part of livestock with low price, grazing own livestocks to the other pasture, leave their livestocks contracted to others by paying some compensation, and all sales.(2) Analysis the factors affecting herdsman’s strategy selection under natural disaster during1999-2001by using the One-way analysis of variance (one-way ANOVA), and determine the per capita income, scale of livestock and pasture area is both a significant effect on the herdsman’s strategy selection under the disasters; using the logistic model to analyze the factors influencing herdsman’s choice of strategy, explore the deep-seated causes of herdsman’s strategy selected and analyzed on the typical herdsman, identify intrinsic factors affecting herdsman’s strategy selection. The results of the chi-square test show that there were significant differences between two time strategy selections, and herdsman’s choice of under the threat of disaster from a variety strategy to gradually concentrate in one. The results of one-way ANOVA show that the per capita income, scale of livestock and pasture area has a significant impact on the herdsman’s strategy selection. Furthermore, the results of using the logistic model to analyze the factors influencing herdsman’s choice of strategy show that in the earlier, the herdsman’s choice of response strategies was impacted a lot by the scale of livestock and per capita income, but with the increase of the herdsmen’s income, the response strategic under the threat of disaster gradually concentrate one of them, no disturbance of the above factors any more. At last, through the analysis of typical herdsman, the main reason for herdsman change their strategic response has been found.