An Empirical Study On Effect Factors Of Civil Servants Scale Based On Time Series Analysis

The problem of civil servants scale is a social topic attentioned by the socialpublic and the mass media, and it is also a hot issue in academic research. A compact,high efficiency and appropriate scale of civil servants can maintain the economic andsocial order, and it will keep the government operate efficiently.We have carried outsix administrative institution reform since1980’s.But at present, the civil servantsscale in China is still not jumping out of the odd circle of “expansion, reduction,expansion”, so our study on civil servants scale is meaningful.If we want to controlthe civil servants scale at moderate range,we should explore the effect factors of civilservants scale changes.on the basis of the theory and practice,we use the time-series data from1982to2011as analysis samples to research the effect factors of civil servants scale and itsfunction way.In the process of research,I mainly use empirical research method,literature analysis and comparative research method in order to provide more valuablereference for our government reform.In this study, the first chapter mainlyintroduces the research background, research significance and the method, it alsosummarizes the research content roundly.In the literature review of secondchapter,this study define the scope of civil servants and the measure of civil servantsscale.It introduces the theoretical research results of domestic and overseas,theseinclude the effect factors of scale of civil servants, the standard of moderate scaleand how to build the moderate scale of civil servants.The third chapter analyzes theeffect factors of civil servants scale changes in detail from economic, political,social, science and technology of four point of view and determines their respectivequantitative indicators,as well as puts forward the hypothesis of this article.The fourthchapter makes an empirical analysis using the raw data, including the descriptivestatistics analysis of the research variables and the correlation analysis between thevariables.At last,I make the regression analysis to establish a regression model,andextract the possible factors affecting on civil servants scale.The fifth chapter analyzesthe research results.It makes a concrete analysis about the effect factors and itsInfluence degree of civil servants scale temporal changes by empirical regressionresults.At the same time,this chapter proposes the corresponding policy suggestions tobuild a moderate scale for the civil servants.The conclusion of this study is:the main factors influencing the scale of civilservants temporal changes are the level of economic development, population, urbanization level, investment in science and technology level, and downsizingreform of administrative institutions.The size of the civil servants will expand with theimprovement of economic development level and the increase of population. Whenthe urban population proportion is more and more higher than that of theagricultural population proportion,the deepening of urbanization level will promotethe expansion of civil servants.The progress of science and technology and theintroduction of e-government will bring government changes in the structure ofhuman, material and financial resources,also,it can improve efficiency and thenrestrain the expansion of the scale of civil servants.Administrative institution reformuses the public policy tools to affect the change of civil servants scale rom the policylevel,so the scale inhibition is more direct and significant.Based on the researchresults,this paper argues that we can take measures like taking configuration functionbetween the government and the market,optimizing the internal structure of civilservants,adjusting Institutional reform to break the isomorphicresponsibility,strengthening the construction of e-government to reasonably adjust thescale of our country civil servants.