Construction Of The Ethnic Population Migration Model And Empirical Analysis

With the development of the society,globalization is becoming more and more significant. Population migration problem has become one of the most complex phenomenon of population development.Since population present a large number of flows in the19th century, scholars from various countries have undertaken extensive research on the migration of population in different areas. As far as China is concerned, with the rapid development of China’s economic and social, regional population flow between become the main characteristic of modern China’s population development. Along with rapid urbanization, population migration in national regions become the important factor in the development of ethnic areas. Population migration involving economy, society, resources and environment, etc factors, population migration and coordination, such as economy, society, resources and environment sustainable development in ethnic areas has important theoretical and realistic significance.About population migration, according to different subjects scholars both at home and abroad each has its own characteristics of the migration model is put forward. This paper firstly introduces three classical migration model, i.e., the gravity of the gravity model and the revised model, markov chain model and toro model, and the three model analysis of the characteristics and limitations of the evaluation. Secondly, the theory model of population migration for ethnic areasis built based on the classical population migration model analysis. Specifically, classical population migration model takes into account the ingoing (out) of population, geographic distance and economic development. Unlike classical migration model, we consider the particularity of population migration in ethnic minority areas, join into (out) of national population ratio, level of education, geographical environment, etc. factors, combined with the gravity model gives a theory model of population migration in national regions.Finally, according to China statistical yearbook and2000,2010census data, population migration has carried on the empirical analysis of national autonomous regions.including:(1) SPSS standardized preprocessing;(2) The populationmigration in five national autonomous areas of economic, geographic,level of education and regional ethnic proportion condition are analyzed;(3) The empirical analysis. We correlate analysis on the influencing factors, thenmodel is reasonable. Determine the coefficient of the model through the principal component regression analysis, and get the empirical model of population migration in national regions. The empirical model can illustrate the factors directly impact on the number of population to move in. Construction of model for population management in ethnic regions, economic and social development strategy formulation to provide digital support.