A Study On The Effect Of Population Aging On China’s Household Savings

In2000, China has gone into the population aging society, it is an early population aging society in the developing world, and it is the most population of aging in the world. The aging of population is not only a problem in our society, but also a problem in the sustainable economic development. Household savings is an important part of China’s savings structure, and is an important source of funds in investment and capital accumulation. Population aging has an certain effect on the household savings rate and savings scale, when China’s Population aging is in the early stages of population aging, the impact on household savings rate is positive, but in the long-term trend, as the elderly population is relatively low level of savings, the more elderly population will bring a lower level of total savings, when China will enter into the severe aging of population, the total impact of household savings rate may be negative. The abundant labor resources and cost advantages bring about the high savings, high investment and high-growth of demographic dividend will gradually subside, replaces by the burden of an aging population trend with a progressive population liability. China’s traditional labor-intensive industrial model has become increasingly difficult to sustain, the economic growth mode which relying on high savings, high investment, low cost of capital will also face challenges, the accelerating aging population will bring negative effect in China’s economic growth. Currently China is accelerating the transformation of economic growth and boosting the domestic consumer demand, a comprehensive and systematic study on the impact of China’s population aging on household savings, can help to deepen the household savings theory, has some practical value and practical significance in the promotion of demographic, economic and social sustainable development.This thesis is divided into six parts. The first section is an introduction, including the research background and the significance of research, related theories reviewed, the main content and frame structure, the innovation and the inadequacies. The second section describes the status and the development trends of China’s population aging, analyzes the characteristics of the development of China’s aging population. The third section describes the status and factors of household savings, analyzes the role of household savings for economic development, and indicates the importance of household savings. The fourth section is divided into two areas, focusing on the static and dynamic relationship between China’s aging population and household savings, firstly from the life cycle motive, the precautionary motive, investment and bequest motive analysis of population aging on household savings motivation, secondly with the Leff model and using the impulse response function to analyze the relationship between population aging and the household savings rate,in addition Japan as the reference for the future of China’s population aging on the impact of household savings to make judgments and predictions. The fifth section is about the policy recommendations, including in increasing the quantitative demographic dividend and promoting the quality-oriented demographic dividend, improving the pension service system and promoting the pension service platform, increasing the aging industrial development and extending the silver consumption market, developing the pension financial services and strengthening the financial support pension (consist of improving the conversion efficiency of savings and investment,strengthening the financial services of commercial banks, developing the products and services in commercial pension insurance, deepening the social pension fund operations and so on). The sixth section is the summary of the thesis.This thesis including the quantitative and qualitative analysis, the elderly dependency ratio for the household savings rate has a positive effect, but the child dependency ratio of household savings rate has a negative effect for the household savings rate without obvious, at the same time learning from the experience of Japan through the past decades and has found that when the aging population develops to a certain stage the increasing elderly dependency ratio will reduce the household savings ratio. Now China is still in the demographic dividend period, since a high proportion of the labor force and in a growth phase, while the proportion of children still in the period of decline of population, aging population, the rate of increase marginally, resulting in relatively abundant supply of labor, relatively light burden of support, the formation of China’s current high household savings rate has brought rapid economic growth. But in2012the absolute numbers of labor force firstly declined since1982,the total dependency ratio rising from the drop began to turn, which will make our labor advantage disappearing, if the population in the demographic dividend into debt, due to the population of aging is greater than production in the future, a significant increase in the proportion of the elderly population, after a certain point in the future the effect of China’s population aging on household savings ratio may result in negative effects.