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The Effects Of The Age Structure Of Population On The Household Saving Rate In China:1978-2012

Posted on:2015-12-05Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:Q XuFull Text:PDF
GTID:2297330422982590Subject:Regional Economics
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China unusual high savings become a hot research at home and abroad, the explanationsare not the same. Chinese household savings rate is close to30%at present, which isgenerally considered to be one of the causes of the shortage of domestic consumption. Thispaper introduce the age structure of population variables (child-age dependency ratio andold-age dependency ratio) of the China function savings model, researching the Impact of theAge Structure of Population on the Household Saving Rate in China through cointegrationanalysis, vector auto regression model (VAR) and Grainger causality test and other methodson1978-2012time series data.Empirical study found that:(1) The child-age dependency ratio and old-age dependencyratio have a long-term equilibrium relationship with household saving rate,1percentage pointincrease of child-age dependency ratio will reduce household saving rate by0.43percentagepoints, while1percentage point increase of old-age dependency ratio will rise householdsaving rate by0.23percentage points;(2) There is a one-way Grainger relationship betweendependency ratio and household saving rate. The explanatory variables dependency ratioaffect China’s household savings;(3) the impulse response graphs show, the child-agedependency ratio has positive correlation to household saving rate while the old-agedependency ratio has negative correlation to household saving rate. When the child-agedependency ratio rises, household savings rate will decrease, when the old-age dependencyratio rises, household savings rate will increase.
Keywords/Search Tags:population age structure, child-age dependency ratio, old-age dependency ratio, savings rate
PDF Full Text Request
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