Research On Effects Of Demographic Dependency Ratio On Household Saving Rate

This paper selects the dependency ratio of population and household savings rate datafrom china over the period from1990to2009. Based on VAR Model, the articleresearched the connections between children’s dependency ratio, elder dependency rateand household saving rate by using Granger causality test, impulse response analysis andvariance decomposition methods. The conclusion indicates that Children’s and elderlydependency ratio are both the granger reason of households saving rate. And throughimpulse response analysis and variance decomposition we can know that, effect of thechange of children’s dependency ratio on the household savings rate become weakgradually and the elderly dependency ratio affecting on the household saving rate willstrengthen.Firstly, the concept of articles related to research conducted explanation, and thendescribes the research scholars at home and abroad with the conclusions of the populationdependency ratio, population age structure and savings relations. Followed by life-cycletheory of savings, household savings and other more classical theory of Western economicsand demography theory as a basis to select China from1990to2009the populationdependency ratio and the household savings rate of20years as a data source of empiricalstudy, based on VAR model, using Granger causality test, impulse response analysis,variance decomposition method to analyze the relationship between the child dependencyratio, the elderly dependency ratio and the household savings rate between the three.The empirical results show that: child dependency ratio and the elderly dependencyratio Granger causes are household savings rate, while the corresponding pulse analysisand variance decomposition analysis may know, in the long run, changes in childdependency ratio of household savings rate influence gradually weak, while the impact ofchanges in the elderly dependency ratio of household savings rate is gradually increased.Finally, we discusses the impact of Japan’s population dependency ratio tremendouschanges in the country’s economic and social impacts as well as the Japanese governmentpolicy measures taken in response to the population problem. Then combined with China’sactual conditions, provide some useful suggestions for future population and economicdevelopment policies.