Application Of Lee-Carter Model To Prediction Of Population Mortality Under Irregular Data

Based on the data of China's census mortality rate and 1% of the sampled mortality data,the paper studies the mortality rate in China using the Lee-Carter model,which is currently the most widely predicted model of mortality.The main innovation of this paper is data processing.It is found that the population mortality data in China is irregular.On the one hand,it is irregular in age.Many scholars group the age when dealing with the data.The most common one is every 5 years old.The maximum value is intercepted to 90 years old,this will lose part of the information,so this article does not group the age,and the maximum age from 90 years to 100 years old;the other hand,it is irregular in year,chinese mortality data less,the year is not continuous,and the difference between the years is also different,this article finally get the gender and rule year forecasting model.Therefore,we use the R software to solve the parameters in the Lee-Carter model by using the singular value decomposition method,Lee and Carter(1992)using the model of random walk with drift term of time factor prediction model is established,this article refer to Han Meng(2010)to improve the double random walk model of time factor prediction model is established.Based on the 2015 population model,we can obtain the population structure of the elderly population aged 60 and above in each of the population aged over 60 in 2020,2025 and 2030.From the figure we can clearly see the population of each age population,This is not achieved by the age group,combined with the nominal dependency ratio of elderly,found that the aging population over the age of 60 increased,and then calculated by different interest rates issued by the morn than the provisions of the national language,indicating that if calculated in accordance with the number of months with the payment of pensions,the national pension fund has become more and more deficit.Therefore,it is suggested that the Chinese pension system should consider the reduction of mortality rate and the fluctuation of interest rates,so that the number of months issued is more suitable for China's national conditions.