Modeling Of Gender-specific Mortality In Japan And Russia Using A Modified Lee-Carter Model

Based on Japan and Russia’s mortality data from Human Mortality Database (HMD), this thesis presents a newly modified Lee-Carter model for mortality data fitting, prediction analysis.It is shown that the modified Lee-Carter model accurately describes the Japan and Russia’s gender-specific mortality from1980to2009, and it externally estimates and explains the evolution of the gender-specific mortality (logit unit) in1960and1970for these two countries very well, and it also ideally predicts the gender-specific mortality for Russia in2010. In addition, smooth curves are obtained to clearly reflect the changing trends of the gender-specific mortality in Russia and Japan.From the perspective of mortality changing with age, the analysis found that, for people between0and15years old, as the body gradually grows up and becomes mature, its adaptive ability for environmental changing increases dramatically, the mortality is decreasing year by year and reaches the bottom for15-year-old people. For people between15to30years old, the mortality is increasing with age because of work-related injuries and transportation accidents, and it reaches a peak at20years of age due to temperament. For people above30years old, the mortality gradually increases with age since the body’s own function becomes weaker. From a viewpoint of mortality analysis at different time, it is shown that the mortality decreases at a faster speed during1960-1980than during1980-2009, which is closely related to the rapid economic growth during1960-1980. The Russia’s mortality with the age between20and80years old, is slightly increasing during1960-2010, which can be explained by social factors such as the bad development of economic growth, medical and health undertakings, unhealthy habits, and so on.Finally, through the analysis of the gender-specific mortality in Japan and Russia, we present some practical suggestions for China to establish and refine the social security mechanism internally and externally so that the mortality is effectively decreased in the future.