Modeling Of Group-Specific Mortality In China Using A Modified Lee-Carter Model

The paper assesses sex-age-specific mortality rates of the four groups of people in China, the country, cities, towns and counties, based on the mortality data from the China Population Statistics Yearbooks (1988-2009) using a newly proposed modified Lee-Carter model, which has the capability of profiling the age-specific rates over years. The results show that in general age-specific mortality rates decrease over the years, and the decreasing speed increased in the past decade. During 2000-2008, the expected mortality rates decreased over the years for females of all ages and groups and males in cities, remained with no changes for males ages 13-36 in the country and towns, but increased for males ages 13-43 in counties.Predictions for 2009 are made based on the 2000-2008 data, and comparisons to the observed rates from an annual survey show that they match each other quite well except for males ages 13-43 in counties, whose mortality rates reached record highs around 2005, and bounced back to the level of 2000 in 2008 and was reduced a little further in 2009, benefiting from the promulgations and enforcements of some safety regulations by the government on construction and mining sites where most labor workers are from counties.Based on the fitted age-specific mortality rates for 2000 and predicted rates, for 2009, the increased life expectancies are calculated, which are about 4.5 years in cities and 3 years in towns and counties for people under 60 except for teenage males in counties, whose increase in life expectancy is the smallest. The predicted age-specific mortality rates using the model are also compared to the assumed rates in the China Life Insurance Mortality Table (2000-2003) promulgated by the China Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC), and they show a great deal of similarity in terms of changing trends over the ages.