| This paper focuses on the study of low-carbon economy in Sichuan on the basis of the existing researches about low-carbon economy. In the study of low-carbon economy in Sichuan, it estimates the current situation of carbon emissions in Sichuan from the aspects of the two major carbon emission causes including agricultural ecosystem and energy consumption. The estimation results show that the Sichuan agriculture ecosystem carbon emissions are mainly caused by tillage and the usage of fertilizer, and the energy consumption carbon emissions are mainly produced by the consumption of three types of fossil fuel including coal, natural gas and coke. This paper uses LMDI model to analyze the influential factors of the Sichuan carbon emissions. It founds that the economic development is the most influential factor the carbon emissions of agricultural ecosystem and energy consumption. At the same time, it discovers that the efficiency of agricultural production materials carbon emissions, agricultural structure and population effects have a negative effect to the agriculture ecosystem carbon emissions, especially the agricultural structure, and the energy efficiency has a positive effect.After the decomposition analysis of the influential factors of Sichuan carbon emissions, this paper uses the system dynamics model to simulate and analyze the low-carbon economy in Sichuan. This paper uses the data of1998to2010to do the back measurement of the Sichuan economic and social system dynamics model, and the maximum error of the GDP growth rate is18.66%which is in accordance with the expectation. Then it uses the model to simulate the Sichuan low-carbon economy from2011to2012, and the simulation shows that the Sichuan low-carbon economy will get a good development with a high growth of GDP and a decrease of carbon emissions under the circumstance of the adjustment of energy structure which is not so obvious compared with the adjustment of industrial structure. In this paper, the simulation of the development of Sichuan shows a rapid economic and social development and a significant reduction of carbon emissions at the level of Sichuan "the12th Five Year Plan" of the industrial structure, energy structure and technology input. In the process of the study of low-carbon economy, the author was inspired by the huge losses to the local residents brought by extreme weather. By the end of this paper, it proposes an idea of a financial derivative to greatly disperse the risk caused by extreme weather. Since the section about the derivative writes hastily, most of the content is about the concept which is lack of feasible studies. But the author still retains the content in order to attract the attention from more scholars to make the system more optimized and disperse the catastrophic risk as soon as possible. |
