Carbon Emission Intensity Of China’s Low Carbon Economy Development Empirical Research

With the rapid development of economic globalization, environmental problems, especially the emissions of greenhouse gases CO2, have gradually become a global issue. In this regard, the government has to adapt to China’s national conditions and policy targets to cut carbon emissions, and 2005 per unit of output compared to carbon dioxide emissions, by 2020 to reduce 40% ~ 45%, the binding targets can be achieved, of China’s national economy and social progress has great significance.This paper describes the use of statistical analysis on China’s carbon intensity from 1953 to 2014, found that despite the relatively large decline, in order to take advantage of 1978 to 2014 the data establish ARIMA time series model to predict the long-term trend of changes in carbon intensity, the results show that carbon intensity of 2020 decreased by 69.4% compared to 2005; followed by qualitative research multivariate dynamic evolution of carbon emission intensity impulse response using vector autoregression model VAR, combined impulse response function, variance decomposition, and further draw energy consumption structure, industrial structure, the impact of investment in fixed assets are weak, indicating that the structure of the system has basically been stabilized state, energy intensity, population size, foreign trade carbon emission strength of a period of 6--8 years, that long-term influence, while taking advantage of factor analysis, combining data from 1978 to 2014, the index system strength of carbon emission factors, are further classified research, quantitative results of three common factors affect carbon intensity: energy intensity factor, economic development factor industrial structure factor and the whole, how much carbon emissions mainly by the impact of the first and second common factor common factor; and finally by complete decomposition model, and use LMDI law, from provincial and regional from 2001 to 2014 its carbon intensity factors of the decomposition results show that the energy intensity effects can contribute to the reduction of carbon emissions intensity, while the carbon- energy coefficient effect, structural effect of the decline in the region hindered carbon intensity.According to the comprehensive conclusion, increase investment in low carbon technology, optimize the industrial structure, accelerate the establishment of the development of new technology industries and modern services, advocate the concept of low carbon consumption, the difference of emission reduction were classified guidance, etc., so as to achieve the stable economic development while reducing carbon emissions of a dual purpose according to different areas.