Linkage Analysis Of Industrial Carbon Emissions In China And Policy Suggestion On Trade Structure Optimization Of Embodied Carbon

The aim of this paper is to study the situation of carbon emissions embodied inChinese international trade and the behavior of productive sectors on economy asdirect and indirect emissions of CO2. To that end, we employed the input-output table(2002-2007) with42sectors and relevant data of three major industries in China.Through quantitative analysis on carbon emissions, this paper provides a new theoryfor industrial structure optimization from the perspective of a low-carbon economy.This paper includes five parts. The first part is to analyze the linkages ofindustrial carbon emissions, which were measured by internal emission, complexemission, net forward linkage emission and net backward linkage emission. Weobtained the net transfer of CO2among industries, and then indicated that low-carbonindustries that have low direct CO2emissions are deeply anchored to high-carbonones and limiting final demand and adjusting energy structure could be an effectiveway to meet China’s emissions targets. The second part is to analyze the situation ofcarbon emissions of China in2002-2007by comparing the direct and indirect carbonemissions of sectors embodied in the Chinese international trade. We indicated thatChinese import and export structure isn’t moving towards the optimal direction. Thethird part is based on an open input-output model to analyze the effects of processingtrade on seven industrial pollutants’ transfer emissions. We indicated that processingtrade had a whole negative impact on the transfers and its effects on internationaltrade of pollution-intensive industries cannot be ignored. The fourth part is based onthe above results of carbon emission linkages, total carbon emission intensities andtrading forms, and combining with the social, economic and environmental data tooptimize the trade structure. The optimized schemes in our study could achieve theminimum net exports of embodied carbon and increase GDP by30%. The last part isto summarize the situation of carbon emissions and the industrial linkages in China.Additionally, some outlook of this paper was brought out at last.