| After the reform and opening up, China has implemented a series of reforms to improve the efficiency of agricultural production which not only reshape China’s position in the world economy, but also speed up the development of agriculture, and then, after30years, the development of China’s agricultural economy has reached a stage from plan economy to market economy, playing an increasingly important role in agricultural development for agricultural modernization matching set and policy support. The effective development of agricultural modernization will bring the benefits of the long-term sustainability to China and the global economy.China should go the path of agricultural modernization in line with their national conditions, which is also the emphasis in planning urban and rural development as a whole and promoting the construction of new socialist countryside. The rise of the industrial revolution and the advancement of technology start the process of agricultural modernization worldwide. In this process, the mode and direction of world agricultural development are related to the respective social and economic infrastructure and the way of natural resources being used. Therefore, in summarization, there are three ways following to achieve agricultural modernization:In this thesis, after summarizing the modern agricultural research results of domestic and foreign scholars, then proposed the new evaluation index system and criteria for the Chinese agricultural modernization by using the simultaneous equations model.Firstly, I established the evaluation index system for the agricultural modernization which included nine selection principles. Principle:systematic and integrity, take full consideration of the various aspects of the modern agriculture and the relationships between them. Principle:key, find the key points which reflects the development status of modern agriculture. Principle:typical, shows the substitutive characteristics of the modern agriculture. Principle:comparability, the selected evaluation index can be compared among the different development level of modern agriculture. Principle:scientific, the selection、definition、 analysis、calculation and interpretation must base on the scientific theory. Principle: transparency, with clear definition, easy operation and based on information infrastructure. Principle:truth, the index selected must indicate the facts of the Chinese agriculture conditions. Secondly, the nine principles of selection by the evaluation of agricultural modernization, which identified seven evaluation indicators of agricultural modernization model required, they are the level of agricultural production and agricultural labor productivity, the level of agricultural science and technology in agricultural input-output ratio, agricultural output and the output per planting area, the agricultural commercialization level-the annual per capita social consumer goods retail sales, the economic structure of agriculture-the total agricultural output value accounted for the proportion of GDP, the level of rural economic development and rural per capita income which can support, the level of quality of labor-labor education. And decide the other influence factors of affecting the above seven indicators, which respectively is the urbanization level, financial investment for agriculture, agricultural disaster rate, soil erosion rate, foreign trade openness. Through the test results of Spearman correlation coefficient shows that, with a high degree of correlation between the seven agricultural, the seven agricultural modernization evaluation index has a high correlation, agricultural labor productivity (ALP), agricultural input and output ratio (AIR), the output value of unit acreage (PAU), per person per year social consumer goods retail sales (PCS), and rural per capita disposable income (RPC) and labor quality (QLF), which completely positive convergence between the six evaluation indicators. For the five influence factors, in addition to the agricultural disaster rate (AHR) has no significant relationship with seven evaluation indicators, the other four indicators and evaluation index have significant correlation.Thirdly, based on the results of the Granger significance level test, determined the relationship between the impact factors and the other evaluation index, and confirmed the explanatory and lagged variables of each evaluation index, then established the simultaneous equations model. Estimated the coefficients of the simultaneous equation model by the Eviews software, and used this model to simulate the seven evaluation index. The determination coefficient and the correction determination coefficient of the seven equations are above0.95, which showed that the entire model passed the significance test and it fitted well.Finally, set the goals and standards of the early, middle and after three stages of domestic agricultural development after referring to international results of the agriculture modernization process and the domestic research result of evaluation criteria. Through the moving average or linear regression of the five influencing factors which affect the seven agricultural modernization indicators, calculated the reference value of the2012-2050, then by the simultaneous equation model, predicted the reference of the seven agricultural modernization indicators of2012-2050.Interpretation the forecast data found that:china is in the early of the modern agriculture and is heading steadily to the after stage, will enter into the middle stage around2019and in2040into the after stage of modernization. By the way, the QLF which shows the quality of the labor is the slowest growth indicators, optimizing agricultural labor structure and improve the farmers’ education level is the only effectively way to enhance the level of QLF indicators. The government should pay attention to the level of urbanization and give more attention to the agriculture investment credit and subsidies fiscal policy as well as the sustainable rural development capacity. |
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