The Empirical Research On The Affect Of Population Change On Housing Prices In Tianjin

Population’s influence on housing price is increasingly apparent. But the influence cannot be fully reflected solely by the population size. In order to clear the role of populationplay in housing price changes, we need to have an empirical analysis on the relationshipbetween the changes of each population elements and housing price, and measure theirrelationship essentially. Tianjin’s economy has developed rapidly in recent years and itshousing price kept climbing. At the same time, the population changed a lot, floatingpopulation kept increasing, family tend to be samller, urbanization kept advancing, etc.. Inorder to clear the relationship between Population and housing price, this pape will have acomparison research on the impact of population change on housing prices in Tianjin andanalysis on the correlation between them.Based on the data of population and housing price from1999to2011in Tianjin, thispaper use grey correlation model to calculate the influence degree of population elementschanges on housing price, generalize interactional relationship between the populationelements changes and housing price, and give some advice on the benign development ofpopulation and housing price.This paper is divided into five chapters. The first chapter expounds the background ofpopulation elements changes and housing price development, summarizes the research statusat home and abroad briefly. The second chapter explains the relevant concepts and theoreticalbasis of population and housing price. The third chapter has a descriptive analysis onpopulation elements in Tianjin, including natural factors, social factors, geographical factors.As the focus of this paper, the fourth chapter has a grey correlation analysis on therelationship between population elements and housing prices. The fifth chapter is thesummary and puts forward some suggestions to promote the development of population andhousing.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1) There is strong correlation between population elements and housing price. Thepopulation social factors and population geographical factors have more significant impactson housing price. And then is the population natural factors.(2) Among the social factors, the relevance dgree of per capita disposable income with the housing market is0.8892, which is the highest. Housing prices is highly affected by theresident income and income is one of important factors which decide house prices. This alsoindirectly explain that Tianjin housing prices are great influenced by local actual needs, whichmainly from local buyers and less affected by nonlocal speculative housing demand. Therelevance dgree of education structure with housing market price is0.7424. The positivecorrelation of personal education level with the housing market is heavily dependent on thatthe improve of personal education level can bring more per capita disposable income and thenfurther affect the price of the housing market. The relevance dgree of household size withhousing market price is0.6819, which is not high. This shows that the miniaturization ofhousehold did not bring more housing demand.(3) Among the population geographical factors, the relevance dgree of permanentresidents population with housing market price is0.7212. Thus it can be seen that the Tianjinhousing market is rigid demand which affected by demand. The natural birth rate of Tianjin isrelatively low, the increase of permanent residents population mainly come from the floatingpopulation, to a great extent the increase of floating population increase the demand forhousing in Tianjin. The relevance dgree of urban and rural structure with housing price was0.7006. The changes of urban and rural structure virtually promote the urbanization process,and then further promote the development of urban housing. And so did the population density,the increase of population density lead to more and more rigid demand, which boost thehousing market prices.(4) On the population natural factors, the relevance dgree of population bring-up ratiowith housing prices is lowest. This shows the obvious advantages of Tianjin "demographicdividend", which include relatively rich labor resources, low dependency burden, fasteraccumulation of wealth, stronger family pay ability. But these advantages were not reflectedon the housing price. The relevance dgree of sex ratio with the housing market price was low,too. In recent years, malefemaleratio of Tianjin has been in the state of equilibrium, whichlead to that a minor change in the malefemaleratio did not influence housing prices.