The Research Of Dry Port Capacity In Urumqi

With the further development of economic globalization, a unified globaleconomy system is gradually formed; factor markets and commodity markets are nolonger limited to a country and region, but the big markets around the world. With therapid development of global economy, commodity market and factor market makeexchanges between countries in the world, the globalization of trade has become aninevitable trend, but the mutual trades between countries eventually rely oninternational logistics to achieve the flow of goods between countries, and to promotethe development of regional economy and the optimal allocation of world resources.With the trade imbalance between countries and regions, trade friction and tradebarriers emerge in endlessly, a new round of international competition is graduallytransformed into the competition of supply chain logistics, how to reduce the logisticscost in the process of international trade has become an urgent problem to consider.Along with the continuous expansion of China’s import and export trade, export ismore than import, the trade friction is increasing, and how to reduce logistics cost andoccupy the dominant position in international trade are also the important ways todevelop our country foreign trade.The dry port which is located in the hinterland is as a node which has thefunction of coastal port or border port logistics, it not only provides complete logisticsservices to inland area enterprises, but also uses the railway transport, road transport,multimodal transport, inland water port and coastal ports seamless link to reduce theinterior commodity export logistics cost, promote the development of inlandexport-oriented economy, and improve the driving force of the eastern industrialtransfer to the western. The dry port is beneficial to realize the adjustment andupgrade of industrial structure, and is helpful to achieve coordinated development ofregional economy, expand the scope of the hinterland of coastal port radiation, andincrease the supply of goods channel; it is of great significance for coastal portcompetitiveness. But dry port development in China is still in its infancy, and mostlyis concentrated in coastal areas; dry port development is almost at the blank stage inthe central and western regions, especially in the western region. This paper attemptsto research dry port capacity problem in Urumqi to analyze the construction feasibilityof dry port in China’s western center city--Urumqi.This paper first describes the background and research significance of the topic, and draws the conclusion that dry port development is significant to China’s foreigntrade from the aspects of national strategy and the local resource advantage analysis,and then based on the related theory, the paper highlights the importance of dry portcapacity study and the necessity by finding that literatures which are related to dryports and dry ports capacity prediction are less both at home and abroad. Next is therelevant theoretical analysis, the main contents are dry port concept, classification,function, form path, the difference analysis between other related concepts andinternational trade theories. Furthermore, the feasibility and necessity of dry portdevelopment in Urumqi is analyzed. Based on the theory and reality, the paper usesthe neural network prediction model to make the prediction by selecting the firstindustrial output, the second industrial output, the third industrial output, grossindustrial output, gross amount of foreign trade, and such12factors which areassociated with dry port capacity in Urumqi region as the prediction input indicators.In the process of the single factor prediction, using grey prediction model to forecast,then forecasting Urumqi dry port capacity by combining the neural networkprediction model and the gray correlation prediction model, the above researchprovides a certain basis of decision support for the construction of Urumqi dryport.Finally, the paper puts forward some suggestions in the planning layout, siteselection, and countermeasures, investment about the development of Urumqi dryport.