Researches On Pre-warning Of Financial Crisis Model In Chinese Listed Companies Based On EVA

With the development of the global economic integration and the increasingmarket competition, it is of great necessity for enterprises to keep a high degree ofcrisis awareness of predicting and guard against crises, so as to remain invincibleamong the furious market competition. Once an operation crisis appears in anenterprise, it is generally presented as a financial crisis. None financial crisis comesout at one time. Instead, this is a gradual process, changing from a good condition to abad one. In this process, it is required that enterprises should predict the financialcrises it is facing, presenting appropriate solutions according to the problems, so as tostop it at the beginning. Therefore, enterprises should establish a whole set ofpre-warning system for financial crises.After summing up the research course of the pre-warning system for financialcrises of enterprises of both abroad and at home, this thesis concludes the relatedtheoretical basis and the calculation method of EVA, explaining the reason forchoosing EVA as the evaluation index and the superiority of this index. During theprocess of choosing the index, this thesis analyzes the relationship between theoperation crisis of enterprises and it, starting with various financial indexes andnon-financial indexes. After the EVA index is introduced into the model, the Logisticmodel will be used to test the relevancy of the index which has been chosen. At lastthe index statistics will be calculated and analyzed, containing statistics of the yearthree years before ST of the ST enterprise and those of normal enterprises of the sameyear. During the modeling process, the thesis not only takes into considerationfinancial indexes, but also some non-financial indexes. What is more, the EVA isintroduced as the evaluation index into financial indexes, thus avoiding the defect oftraditional financial indexes and finally builds a comprehensive pre-warning modelbased on indexes of financial, non-financial as well as the EVA index.This study chooses24financial-facing enterprises in various industries that wereST because of their abnormal financial condition from2011to2012. Then, with theprinciple of similar industry, this study chooses24enterprises with normal financialcondition to set up a modeling sample. While taking the statistics of the year (T-3) andmodeling23financial indexes and7non-financial indexes, the thesis introduces EVAand adjust relevant financial index, then test Sample t according to these indexes, soas to choose indexes that are significant to financial crises. However, indexes with higher relevancy should be taken out. Then the thesis establishes the LogisticRegression Model One based on10correlated variables and the relevant Model Twowithout EVA traditions. At last, the analysis carried out by result-reversing concludesthat the regression model with EVA index in it possesses higher predicting ability thanthat of traditional model, showing that EVA index has a certain degree of pre-warningfunction to financial crisis.