Study On Influences Of Consumer Expectation On Consumption Structure Based On Demands Hierarchy

Since reform and opening. China’s economy has got rapid development during the last thirty years and has made remarkable achievements in the world, which means consumption, investment and net exports have been as a troika to promote economic growth. Among them, consumption demand is starting point and end-result of social production process, and motive power of in promoting economic development. Form the1997Asian financial crisis, to the2008global financial crisis, the Government had been conscious to the importance of domestic demand to promote economic development. By the end of2012, the economic growth mode which depending on external demands pulling called "export-oriented", has fallen into bottleneck. So, to stimulate domestic consumption to alleviate the contradiction between the market economy is not only necessary, but also inevitable. China is a major agricultural country, with the peasants accounting for over70%of the whole population. Moreover, urban-rural dual structure formed by the gap between urban and rural consumer. For a long time, the rural consumption market couldn’t be prosperous. requirements couldn’t be satisfied. So the consumer market in rural areas is considered the most potential market which is so called Blue Ocean. That is to say, it’s a must-be-solved problem for enlarging rural consumption domestic demand at present, including rural residents’ income and rural consumption environment. Meanwhile, consumption structure is a important part of consumption problem, and the reasonable degree of consumption structure is important to the benign development of consumption. Optimizing consumption structure is of realistic significance to the healthy and benign development of increasing consumption level and quality.As consumers becoming the dominating factor of market operation, consumer expectation impacts the economic operation greatly also. Rural resources are occupied by urban residents for a long time, rural residents have to face the uncertainties, including employment, Pension, medical, education and housing and so on, which formed the pessimistic expectations about future consumption and life, and has a larger negative impact on consumer behavior.It appeared that conclusions about consumer expectation were not rich, and method is more traditional, which use consumption function as the analysis tool, study on the correlation between variables, by the empirical analysis of time or cross section data. This paper is based on the theory of consumer psychology, and quotes data and information including the National Bureau of Statistics and academic research, commercial research. using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to build evaluation model of "expectation-consumption structure", exploring the expected impact on consumption structure of rural resident’s consumption, so as to making the research conclusions can has a certain application significance.While this research got some mainly conclusions:First, the rural residents’consumption structure has been transformed by step, developing from basic consumption for food or clothing of necessity to pursue personal development, such as high level requirements change.Second, the rural residents’ consumption expectation expected by many factor comprehensive influence, and impact to the formation of consumption structure. The income expectation of the household and expenditure expectation of the household are big impact to the consumption structure, which weight are0.359and0.279respectively, more than the other three factors of expected factors.Third, the income expectation of the household is the primary factor affecting the consumption structure, and has the greatest influence, compared with other factors, which mainly exert influence on the consumption structure through the future income of household, source of income, confidence in the future life, and the fixed income.Fourth, rural residents face more uncertainty factors than urban residents, so consumer spending is affected by various spending projections in the future. Such as marriage, education, health care, enjoying service, future pension, weddings and funerals etc, all of which will have influence on current consumption as an important aspect of rural residents’ future spending.Fifth, the expectation of macroeconomic and policies have a certain influence on rural residents’ consumption structure, but still need to strengthen.