An Empirical Analysis Of The Effect That The Fluctuation Of RMB Exchange Rate Has On Chinese Import And Export Trade Structure

Since1980, RMB of China has experienced two stages:the devaluation of the RMB and the appreciation of RMB, especially the sharp appreciation of RMB under international pressure.The appreciation of RMB has a far-reaching influence on our economies. Although the appreciation of RMB will bring great pressure to the foreign trade of China, it is a great opportunity for upgrading of import and export commodities trade structure.But the results of the present study are primarily focused on Chinese total trade,the articles about the trade structure of Chinese import and export are few. Therefore, this paper focuses mainly on the analysis of trade structure.This paper chooses real effective exchange rate index of RMB from1980to2011and the import and export volume of all types of goods under the standard classification as the analysis data. Based on the trend analysis of the real effective exchange rate and the trade structure of import and export from1980to2011,we take the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis method to analyze the effect of the real effective exchange rate of RMB on import and export trade structure.About the measure of the commodities trade structure of import and export,we chose the proportion of industrial manufactured goods and the proportion of the capital and technological product.Using the method of quantitative vector auto regression,Cointegration test, Error correction model,we analyzed the short-term and long-term effect of the real effective exchange rate of RMB on Chinese import and export commodity structure, and results are the following:(1)When using capital and technological intensive products to account for the export commodity structure,there is a long-term cointegration relationship between the real effective exchange rate and export commodity structure,and there are Granger reasons between them.So we think that the appreciation of RMB can bring optimization to the trade structure of export commodities.(2)In the study of the structure of import goods, the relationship between the import trade structure based on the proportion of industrial manufactured goods and the real effective exchange rate of RMB is significant and through inspection.The appreciation of the RMB has the negative effect on the import trade structure optimization,the result of long-term and short-term effects are the same.(3)When considering the export and import trade structure, we take the total import and export volume to measure the overall trade structure. We think the relationship between the real effective exchange rate of RMB and the total merchandise trade structure is positive in long time and negative in the short time.The appreciation of RMB could bring the optimization and upgrading of Chinese merchandise trade structure,and the effect coefficient is rather large.(4)In order to measure overall commodity trade structure better,we introduced the concept of intra-industry trade index.And under the standard of international trade classification,we choose the intra-industry trade index of primary products and manufactured goods.We found that the real effective exchange rate of RMB has a negative effect on the primary products trade index,and it has a positive effect on the trade of manufactured goods in index.When the appreciation of RMB,the trade index of manufactured goods rises and the trade index of primary products is decline,so the general merchandise trade structure has an optimization. The appreciation of RMB has a positive effect on the general merchandise trade structure.