| National debt is a tool that regulates the economy in modern economicdevelopment and plays an irreplaceable role. However, the debt crisis caused byincorrect use of national debt has brought great harm to the economic development.China is also facing increasing pressure from the size of the debt in economicdevelopment. Therefore, China needs to establish the benchmark about reasonablesize of national debt, and seek ways to make the size of national debt reasonable, soas to build the scale of China reasonable bond. It can exert active effect oneconomics, and avoid the debt crisis as the large scale debt. The national debt canbe divided into subjective and objective liabilities, and they have different effectand goals in life and economics, which can define the economic significance of thedebt ratio. Research the restriction factors relative to Chinese national debt scaleaccording to the mechanism of formation of the bond, on this basis, they areanalyzed that the size of the national debt by their indicators and structures, thebenchmark about reasonable size of national debt reasonable bond index system areestablished, and put forward a reasonable way to get national debt. Which theemphasis of the analysis is that do the time series prediction through the ARIMAmethod and Expert Modeler method by the SPSS statistical software, according tothe deficit-debt dynamics model and the theory of effective demand, combiningwith Chinese economic development, the rational system of national debt indicatorsis established. The system constraints the scale of Chinese domestic debt, but alsoexpands the scope of foreign debt scale, the scale of Chinese domestic debtconstraint is mainly based on Chinese economic development calculation of areasonable debt ratio, debt capacity residents should reasonably deficit rate andreasonable debt dependence indicators will control the government debt at all withina reasonable indicator. It achieves the purpose to obtain a reasonable scale ofnational debt. |
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