| In recent years, China and US have been widely recognized as the two engines to promote world economic growth, and that that they have a huge impact on global trade development. Although the two countries are at different stages of development, their economies are highly complementary. Since the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries in 1979, trade relations have been rapidly developed with the trade volume rising successively. In 2003, China-US trade volume exceeded 100 billion for the first time, reaching 126.3 billion U.S. dollars; in 2008, this figure reached 333.7 billion U.S. dollars, increased by 130 times compared with the beginning of Sino-US diplomatic relations. At present, China has become America's largest import resource, and the United States is China's second largest trading partner.The trading relationship between China and US is getting increasingly close, which on the one hand is a strong impetus to China's economic growth, on the other hand deepens China's trade dependence on the U.S. economy. It is mainly reflected by the fact that China's trade dependence ratio to US is soaring. Trade dependency ratio, the ratio of a country's import and export volume to its GDP in the period of time (usually one year), is an important indicator of a country's economic dependence on international markets. In 1997, China's trade dependence ratio to USA is only 5.14%; in 2003, 6.07%; then till 2007, it has soared to 9.88%. Currently, however, the U.S. economy is in deep financial crisis, leading to the stagnancy in domestic demand and lack of consumer confidence. China's export will be inevitably affected by U.S., which will lead to lower export growth, thereby impact China's economic growth.In order to reduce China's trade dependence on U.S., to reduce the economic risks brought by China's deep involvement in globalization, the paper analyzes Sino-US trade relations, especially on China's trade dependence ratio to U.S. and its influencing factors. This paper starts by reviewing the related theories of division of labor in international trade, and a lot of research results on trade dependency by scholars at home and abroad. In the chapter 2, through the historical data, the paper illustrates the characteristics of Sino-US trade relation and to what extend China's trade is dependent on US. In chapter 3, the paper explores the factors and mechanism how they affect China's trade dependence on US, where Gray Relational Analysis is used to pick up the relatively important factors. In chapter 4, Co-integration Regression Analysis is implemented to further analyze the top 5 affecting factors including the ratio of service industry, China's national savings rate, the RMB exchange rate, FDI exports and US GDP. Conclusion is drawn that China's trade dependency ratio to US has a long-term stable correlation with the 5 variables, as expected. Among the 5 factors, the ratio of service industry has a negative effect on China's trade dependence to US, while the other 4 have positive impact. Based on the study, suggestions of accelerating industrial upgrading, diversification of export markets, improving trade structure and stimulating domestic demand are given to reduce trade dependence to US and economic risks, thereby minimizing the negative impact of US financial crisis on China's economy. |
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