Based On A Variety Of Analysis Methods Of Total Grain Output Zhuanglang County Influence Factors Analysis

The middle-and-low-yielding fields account for65%of total land area in ourcountry and distribute mainly in Northwest that agricultural production environmentis fragile. Zhuanglang in Gansu county is a large agricultural county,but it is lack ofrain.The soil erosion is serious and the agricultural production environment isfragile.But since the1960s after through terrance,the agricultural productionenvironment improve significantly. Grain output has a higher and more stable yield.Land improvementn is representative. This article collect1991-2010two decadesgrain production and its associated data and analyse is the main factors that affectzhuanglang county grain production using principal component analysis,mutiplelinear regression analysis,stepwise regression analysis, contribution rate analysis andcurve fitting in order to analyze the main indicators affecting grain output. Try to findthe key factors that affect the total grain output and establish production functionmodel and analyse the main factors affecting the contribution degree and thetrend.The article in-depth analyse terrace area and total grain output a linearrelationship between them. The results show:(1)Through principal component analysis and regression analysis the mostsignificant factors influcing Zhuanglang grain production are grain per mu, grainsown area, terraced area, pesticide consumpotion and rural labor.The results arebasically identical with the existing research results;(2)Using the method of contribution analyse the five main influence factorscontribution to the total grain output. Five influence factors of contribution rate trendis presented by adding the method of trend line:the contribution rate of grain per mu,grain sown area and pesticide consumpotion of grain production show upwardtrend.The contribution rate of rural labor force and terraced area of grain productionshow downward trend;(3) Curve fitting show that at the early stage of the terrance the total grain outputwill decrease with the increase of the terrace area because the plough layer is damaged.But with the plough layer continuous curing, the total grain output willincrease with the increase of the terrace area.