The Factors On The Fluctuation Of Grain Output After The Implement Of Grain For Green Project

The Grain for Green Project(GGP) is a vital ecological project, which aims for better environment and national ecological security. After the implement of GGP, the grain output has reduced 19%, just as the converted size of sown area by GGP is rising. Consequently, the contradiction between grain supply and demand becomes more and more serious. Therefore, it is significant to discuss the key influence factors of grain output, which is of great importance to maintain the implement of GGP and ensure food security. This paper divides grain crops into 5 types, and take the Grain Output Per Capita (GOPC) and Grain Output Growth Rate (GOGR) as the research subject. 12 influence factors are selected to set up 10 panel data models to study the key influence factors of each grain crop's GOPC and GOGR, as well as the influences of the provinces and regions. After calculating the Influence Coefficient of both GOPC and GOGR, we gather the results from the 10 model and conclude the key influence factors of grain output based on the two Influence Coefficients.This paper consists of seven chapters. Chapter One introduces the background, purpose and methodology of the research, as well as the summary of the related studies. Chapter Two introduces the variables and indexes, and explained the method to set up the model and the Influence Coefficients. Chapter Three and Four describe 5 panel data models of GOPC, and study the influence factors of GOPC and the influences characters of the provinces and regions. Chapter Five focus on the five panel data models of GOGR, and analyse the key influence factors of GOGR. Chapter Six gather the result of the Chapter 3 and 5, and analyses the key factors for the fluctuation of grain output after the implement of GGP. Chapter Seven offers advices to maintain the implement of GGP and ensure food security.Our simulation finds that the key factors to grain outputs are not GGP but the changing of planting structure, per unit yield and technical factors. The environmental and social factors are not prominent. Shandong, Henan, Hebei and Jilin province have obviously positive impacts to GOPC, while Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing, Xizang and Tianjing have negative impacts. The most influential regions to each kind of grain crop are respectively the middle, eastern, middle, middle, and western part of China. There are no obvious differences for the regional influences of GOPC among the western, eastern and middle part of China, and the influence of the middle part is comparatively bigger.