| Issues of agriculture, farmers and rural area are always the most concern by all thepeople since they have been proposed, especially the farmers’ income issue, which is relatedto farmers’ vital interests. When Government plan the strategic deployment of the social andeconomic development, they repeatedly put the country construction into the1st file, whichfocus on improve the level of farmers’ income, improving rural residents life and livingenvironment, etc. After years of these efforts, the rural area make a better development.On the contrary of the new changes in the other countryside, the development of ruralarea in Guizhou province was restricted by its special geographical environment.Development in Guizhou was always under the average level of whole Country. It is one ofthe poorest provinces. Rural poverty phenomenon is very outstanding even after years ofpoverty alleviation projects. This is mainly because a big population of farmers in Guizhou,low level of urbanization, scarcity of human capital, a worst social environment andagricultural condition. Combined with the special geographical location, traffic block, naturaldisasters, terrible soil structure for farming, and so on, Guizhou province is facing bottlenecksof rural economy development and farmers’ income increasing. With reference to pastempirical researchers and theories on the farmers’ income problem, in this paper focusing onthe solution, I will find the characteristics of farmer’s income in times series, and find themain restricting factors of farmer’s income as the aspects of geography, society, as well as theexternal environment. I will prove the cointegration relationship between these characteristics,factors and the farmer’s income level by the establishment of Vector Autoregressive Model(VAR model). Then, I will build a Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model(ARIMAmodel) to forecast the future of farmers’ income in Guizhou. The policy suggestion will beputted in the last sector. |
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