Judging The Slowdown Period Of China’s Increasing Coastal Port Throughput

Since the reform and opening up, with the rapid development of the economy andinternational trade, coastal ports of China have achieved leapfrog development and port throughputwas rapidly growing. This phenomenon induced boom of the domestic port construction, the newport large-scale expansion. However, the growth in port throughput wills eventually becomingsaturated. There will be excess capacity of coastal ports in accordance with the current pace of portconstruction. Therefore, it is of great significance to control the pace of port construction by carringout early warning research in time and relevant policies.Using the theories of international trade and international logistics, this paper explores andstudies the theoretical and practical issues of port development. Combination of port developmenttheory, this paper is mainly to carry out four works: firstly, it redefines port throughput growthinflection point, and demonstrates port throughput growth law by analysis of the industrializedcountries and regions that have completed the port throughput growth evolution. Furthermore, thispaper studies the intrinsic link between the port throughput of economic and trade indicators.Secondly, this paper researchs the evolution of the Japanese and Korean port throughput growthfrom a historical persrective, and the relationship between the throughput of the port and theeconomic and trade indicators. Based on the analysis, this paper summarizes the regularitycharacteristics of the GDP, per capita GDP, international trade and industrial structure when thegrowth of the port throughput slows down. Thirdly, by analyzing the status of the port developmentand the economic and trade development, getting that both of them is in a stage of rapiddevelopment. And then on the one hand, this pape forecasts the GDP, international trade, industrialstructure and other economic and trade indicators by the Lodistic model, ARIMA model andspherical dimensionality reduction component date methods. Then combined with Japan andKorea national economic and trade indicators and the regularity characteristics, this paper study theperiod of the slowing of the growth of China’s port throughput. On the other hand, through the portthroughput growth law which has argumented to establish the Logistic model to predict theevolution of China’s coastal port throughput growth process, then get the conclusion that when theChina’s coastal port throughput will slowdown. Fourthly, this paper carries out the proposedregulation on the development of China’s coastal ports.