Research On The Relationship Between Coastal Ports Throughput And The National Economic

Since the reform and opening up, China's coastal ports have realized great-leap-forward development. The capacity of coastal ports have been changed from the original acute shortage to the basically meet the demand now, moreover, some of the specialized terminal has a surplus, with the strong construction of the port in recent years. Port construction boom in China is just emerging and not yet have serious consequences. It is feasible to adjust the pace of port construction by carrying out early warning research in time and macroeconomic policy. This paper has made a thorough study on the intrinsic link between coastal port freight demand and economic development, port construction on the adaptability of national economic development, and several other issues using transport economics, macroeconomics, and other related theories.Firstly, investigate the evolution of port throughput growth in four economically developed countries (US, UK, South Korea, Japan) from a historical point of view, looking for the general regularity in the evolution. Conclusion and analysis the for countries' regularity of port throughput in the same economic stage, locate the stage of China's coastal ports throughput growth in contrast with China's economic stage.Secondly, this paper conducted a quantitative study on internal relations between demand of port freight and national economics development. By analyzing economic impact on coastal port production in the various stages of economic development, combined with transport economics, we research on the time allocation pattern of China's coastal ports resources. Through the establishment of fuzzy cognitive model to analyze the economic factors which impact the scale of China's coastal ports in the current stage of economic development; reach shipping industry's dependence on the different product sectors by using input-output table of the port, through the regression analysis to calculate the economic growth and the structure contribution rate in the total port throughput.Thirdly, this paper researched the overall adaptability of port development and national economic development in the next period of time. Using trend analysis, regression, elasticity coefficient and other methods to get a simple port cargo demand forecast, then analyze the forecast accuracy. According to the relationship between cargo demand and economic factors, established a high precision LM-BP neural network prediction model, and amended on the predicted results with the stage of economic development in China. By comparing the results of demand forecasting and planning supply capacity, analyze the supply and demand balance of coastal ports, and the possible hazards caused by the port's overcapacity.Finally, taking Fujian coastal ports and the coal professional terminals as the empirical study, this paper studied the supply and demand balance of the typical region and a typical professional terminal. According to the empirical analysis of Fujian ports and the coal professional terminals, and the main conclusions, this paper proposed the regulations of China's coastal port development.