Research On The Warning System Against Financial Crisis Of Listed Real Estate Corporations In China

Recently, with sustained economic development and social adjustment of theconsumption structure, the demand of commercial housing and the rising of the real estateindustry has developed rapidly. The real estate industry related in a deep degree andleaded efficiently. Therefore, the real estate industry has rapidly developed into one of themost important industries of China’s national economy and has played an important role inthe development process of China’s economic life. In order to promote the rapid andhealthy development of the real estate industry, our government has published a number ofsupportive policies for the industry, for example:capital, land supply and so on. However,faced with an increasing competitive environment, the real estate market has boomed at thesame time and has emerged a huge real estate bubble. The government has introduced anumber of policies to curb housing prices and strengthened macro-control on the real estatemarket efforts. In the context of market regulation is not relaxed, the tightening of financingchannels and the high rate of assets and liabilities have increased the pressure on the fundchain of the real estate enterprise. All of this will increase the financial risk of the realestate industry, and made the hidden dangers for the financial crisis. The security andsuccess of finance is the key to the survival and the development of the listed real estatecorporations. Therefore, the financial risk management has important significance toforecast the financial crisis.On the basis of summing up the domestic and international financial crisis warningtheory, The thesis adopts qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis and applies thefinancial crisis early warning to real estate corporations. Based the characters of listed realestate corporations in China, the financial crisis has been defined the corporations withabnormal financial status,which has been imposed by the SFC "ST". Finally,the thesisselects financial data of56listed real estate corporations of the Shanghai Stock Exchangein the past three years as the study sample,and29financial indicators as predictor variables,to establish the index system. Moreover, using the Z-Score scoring method and principalcomponent analysis method to establish the financial crisis early-warning model to identifythe financial crisis and make an empirical analysis of the results of model.