China's Listed Real Estate Enterprise Financial Crisis Warning Research

With the development of China's market economic system gradually, the enterprise faces increasingly complex economic environment, various risks followed. Among them, financial risk is the most direct. Use of financial crisis warning model, overall evaluation on the financial situation of enterprises through the analysis of the financial factors of the enterprise, to the enterprise financial risk early warning, help enterprise managers in advance measures, reduce unnecessary losses.Recent years, China's real estate industry developing rapidly, the government control the price of the house excessive growth.Real estate enterprises' characteristics is into long payback period.Moreover, real estate enterprises also has its own funds, less mostly rely on bank loans, the financial risk is bigger than other industries.Based on the real estate companies' research object, analyzes the industry's financial risk, prediction and management of the enterprise, it is necessary for all stakeholders.The first of this paper is to summarize domestic and international relevant research results of enterprise financial crisis, on the basis of analysis of the connotation, characteristics of real estate enterprise financial crisis warning system, to set up the principle and function; Secondly on the basis of the analysis of the current financial warning index, analyzes the real estate enterprise financial crisis early warning indicators, and through the introduction to common model for pre-warning of enterprise financial crisis and evaluation, selection of principal component analysis and logistic regression method to establish the early warning model of this paper.In research part, mainly in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchange, about 42 real estate enterprises as the research sample, the listed company financial crisis in the first 3 years of actual financial data, first of all, an independent sample t-test and independent samples nonparametric the Mann-Whitney-U screening test to select warning index, finally selected 16 index as significant. Then by principal component analysis and binary logistic analysis, logistic crisis warning model is established, and used Excel tested the logistic warning model.Through the analysis of this model, help to prevent investment risks, and enhance the real estate enterprise internal control and financial early warning system, to enhance the real estate enterprise's competitive advantage.