Country Risk Assessment In Export Credit Insurance Under The Background Of European Debt Crisis

With the development of globalization, the global economic development is also closely related. Since entering the1990s, the outbreak of the economic crisis become more frequently, so that the export credit insurance plays an particularly important role in the development of economic integration.This paper puts emphasis on discussing the issue of country risk assessment in the field of export credit insurance.Firstly a brief overview of the export credit insurance and the country risk of the export credit insurance.Then the artic analysis the risk combined with the background of the debt crisis, followed by the assessments of the country’s political risk reflects the wishes of the sovereign state debt service and the country’s economic risk reflects the ability of debt service. With reference to political risk, the article picks out12variables which are endowed with different weight according to their influences on political risk, and then sums up the score of each variable to evaluate political risk of a country,such as Italy and China. With reference to economic risk,the article takes net foreign exchange income as core index and sets different flow and stock indexes to evaluate the country economic risk,found that the debt crisis in Europe leaded the country economic risk significantly improved. According to the analysis country risk on the influence of export credit insurance, found that the presence of a significant impact of country risk premium rate on export credit.,then using the Black-Scholes option pricing model to calculate the country risk rates which is used as reference index by the export credit insurance agency,at the same time,comparative analysis of country risk rate level in different guarantee levels. Finally, the artic gives some suggestions on the China’s export credit insurance.