Research On The Linkage Effect Of Real Estate Prices And The RMB Exchange Rate

Real estate prices are mainly influenced by the factors which about real estate consumers, investors, real estate developers, commercial banks, local governments and the central government. And the RMB exchange rate and real estate prices are also the main factors to decide the investment behavior of foreign real estate investors. Because the domestic real estate prices and the expectations of the RMB exchange rate appreciation are arising therefrom, a lot of investment capital enter the domestic real estate market. In the case of certain short-term supply of real estate, there will be a sharp rise in the domestic real estate prices, which will attract a lot of many capital into the housing market in turn. In addition, a large number of international capital gives the RMB exchange rate a huge appreciation pressure. When the estate prices and the RMB exchange rates are expected appreciation arising, there is a mutual push up effection relationship between housing prices and the RMB exchange rate. However, when the housing prices and the RMB exchange rate rise some exten, if the changes in the government policy, as well as in market expectations will make a large number of domestic and foreign investors in the real estate market to flee, this will make the real estate market and the capital markets fluctuate, even maybe affect the financial markets and the stable development of the social economy.The main content of this paper:Firstly,this study mainly combes through the existing literature to find the entry point of this research. Secondly,we analyzes the behavior of he main type subjects of real estate prices, and on the basis of the mechanism of the real estate market, we try to build the model of the dynamic relationship model of the correlation function on the estate prices and the exchange rate. Thirdly, We use VAR in the empirical part of an empirical test of the theoretical model. And the empirical results show:there is a significant impact effect between the rate and the RMB exchange rate. Lastly, On the basis of theoretical analysis and empirical testing,we make some policy recommendations on the real estate market and the RMB exchange rate.