Research On Real Estate Industry’s Contribution To China’s Economic Growth And Impact On Inflation

The occurrence of the financial crisis in2008,the proposal of ten industryrevitalization plan in2009,and the introduction of a series of macro-control policiesfor the real estate market Since2010, such as "eight new national regulations","eleven national regulations","The purchase order" and so on triggers a fiercediscussion about the relationship between the real estate industry and the nationaleconomy. Based on this background,this article study the impact of fluctuations in thereal estate market on the national economy, judges China’s current status of the realestate market in the national economy, as well as Chinese economy’s dependence onthe real estate industry, and as a result, makes recommendations on the national realestate control policies. This article has very important theoretical and practicalsignificance.The real estate industry’s impact on China’s economy is nothing more than: onthe one hand, a directly promote or driven, or indirectly promote or driven through theassociation between the industry to GDP growth, expressed as the real estateindustry’s direct and indirect contribution to China’s economy; on the other hand,impact the national economy through price changes, expressed as the impact on pricelevel.In this tone and on the basis of the related theories, this article illustrates theimpact of the real estate on the national economy from two aspects: advantages(contribution to the national economy rate) and disadvantages (inflation).First,based on the measure process, this article apply the growth value methodand input-output model respectively to measure the directly and indirectlycontribution rate of the real estate industry to the national economy. Through analysisof China’s economic dependence on the real estate industry, the following conclusionsare obtained.The real estate industry is the leading industry of China’s nationaleconomy and final demand-based industries. China’s real estate industry is still in theextensive development stages.China’s national economy rely heavily on the real estateindustry. Secondly, cointegration tests, VAR analysis are used to measure therelationship between real estate and inflation. Through the analysis of the results, wefound that short-term fluctuations in real estate prices on inflation is weak, or evenzero; Within the long-term, real estate price fluctuations will produce graduallyenhanced positive impact on macroeconomic. With the rise of real estate prices, the price level will gradually rise, so the changes in real estate price are very helpful tothe forecast of future inflation.Finally, based on comprehensive analysis of the resultsof advantages and disadvantages, this article obtains the conclusions of the paper andput forward corresponding policy recommendations.